Abstract
Following rules of activity, resulting from ethical norms accepted in given society,
may be one of sources of a competitive advantage. Though, it can be presumed that not
everybody is aware of the necessity as well as of advantages connected with activity
running this way. In this aspect, the aim of the article to show Polish businessmen
attitude towards challenges lowing from handling business in accord with ethics. All
theoretical issues discussed herein pertain to the topic of business ethics. Empirical
data presented in this paper were gathered by the authors during 410 interviews
about ethics that were conducted with businessmen running small and middle
irms. The main intention was to determine if obeying ethic rules is a real value for
entrepreneurs. From obtained results the conclusion, that Polish businessmen declare
the importance of ethics in their activity, but in practice the bulk of them does not
remember any rules and does not recognize ethics as a footing of business, can be
draw out.
INTRODUCTION
The present crisis is commonly referred
to as a “crisis of trust” (Keeble, 2005,
Sztompka, 2008, Uslaner, 2010), but
what exactly is meant by trust? It can be
said that trust is a belief in conduct of
others as well as in rules governing social
life. We believe that norms constitute a
signiicant part of human life, and those
around us voluntarily follow commonly
accepted standards that can be generally
referred to as ethical behavior (Sztompka,
2007). When we consider crisis of trust
on the economic plain, it means there
is lack of trust in the conduct of local
authorities, the government and business
entities, as well as consumer behaviors,
which hinders decision-making processes
and adopting certain attitudes. It seems
that the bigger a corporation, the more
complicated are its dealings and the more
dificult it is to attain transparency. It may
be therefore assumed that the crisis of trust
refers rather to larger entities than smaller
ones which offer a direct contact with
their consumers. As it turns out, problems
with ethics do not revolve solely around
entrepreneurs’ attitudes, but also around
their company resources which include
staff – it has been found that personnel
who don’t trust their employers, work
unwillingly (Rose, 2009).
Concerns over ethical operations
in business are becoming more and more
important in times of economic crisis:
should companies, irrespectively of
their size and business ield, follow the
commonly accepted norms in times of
danger? Moreover, given the deteriorating
148 Joanna, Ethics As A Foundation ...
markets, should they continue to care not
only for their proits, but also for so-called
“social needs”? Modern management
schools say ”yes” to these questions. The
idea of sustainable development and CSR
also concur with this view. Not everyone,
however, agrees with this approach.
Let us recount a famous article by M.
Friedman (Friedman, 1970), in which
the author stated that promoters of a prosocial attitude and care about common
well-being is simply a disguised an
advertisement of socialism. At the same
time, such promoters undermine free
market and the right to dispose of one’s
property, i.e. the very essence of business.
If we agree with this view, it should
come as no surprise that businesspeople
are obviously against “good business”,
which presently means not only honest
practices, but also green ones.
Socially-minded behaviors are
frequently forced by active consumer
groups, as well as by the media. However,
they are not able to inluence everything.
Therefore entrepreneurs may – but do
not need to – follow social expectations.
On the other hand, it seems they need to
behave ethically lest they come in for
open criticism. The borderline between
these two attitudes is elusive, but most
deinitely it does exist. It is therefore the
aim of this paper to present attitudes of
Polish businessmen towards ethics-related
problems and challenges. Conclusions
will relect upon the real value of ethics
in business.
The discussion focuses both on
the fundamental question of what is
not allowed in business, as well as
problems related to attitudes towards
the environment and poor people. The
comments relect the decline in the
market, but also the socioeconomic
transformation that Poland – a former
communist country – has experienced.
All theoretical issues discussed
herein pertain to the topic of business
ethics. Empirical data presented in this
paper were gathered by the authors
during 410 interviews about ethics that
were conducted with entrepreneurs in
2009. The choice of respondent was not
random – the interviews were conducted
with owners and managers from small
and medium-sized enterprises (SME)
who agreed to the interview. The research
was of qualitative nature and relects
respondents’ opinions about the presence
of ethical norms in their business dealings,
as well as the background of their adopted
attitudes.
RESEARCH METHOD
Research unit analysis is Polish SME,
particularly the manager. Study was done
to investigate SME’s manager ethics.
For this purpose, survey study was
design and questionnaire was deployed
as research instrument. Prior to develop
questionnaire, ethics management should
be understood perfectly.
Ethics is frequently deined as a
set of moral principles that control or
inluence people’s behaviors. J. Hołówka
states that human life consists of ive
spheres: personal ethics, sexual ethics,
voluntary commitments, social ethics and
public ethics (Hołówka, 2002). Ethics is
understood as a set of theorems deining
what is good and what is wrong at a given
time for a particular group of people.
Signiicantly, ethics in management,
or ethics in business, is placed in the
“voluntary commitments” category, i.e. it
is considered to be only a voluntary group
ethics. A conclusion may be drawn that
business ethics is as set of rules that may
be followed, although not necessarily, as it
does not result in negative consequences.
With regards to above deinition,
four questions were developed to explore
ethics, namely:
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 149
1. In general, should companies
care about the environment
and does your company care
about it?
2. What does your company do to
protect the environment?
3. Should people share with the
needy?
4. How important is ethics in
business?
In addition to those questions, it
was also collected respondent’s sex, ield
works, the existence of norms in business,
and improper behavior in business.
Respondents are Polish SME’s managers.
Data collection was done by personal
interview considering the questions are
in open form. Further data collected was
tabulated and displayed using graph.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Ethics according to Polish SME –
assumptions and research results
Society is inluenced not only by large
market entities, but also by small and
medium-sized ones. Currently, consumers
expect companies, irrespectively of
their size, to offer good products and
treat their cooperants and employees
fairly (Augustyniak, 2011). It means
that just as every person has certain
commitments towards their communities,
analogically each business should realize
certain obligations so that they could
participate in social life in an active,
ethical and responsible way. It is true
for all forms of activity can be relected
in various types of social commitment
(Responsible Business Forum - Forum
Odpowiedzialnego Biznesu, 2009). Based
on the above mentioned assumptions, it
has been researched if business people
share this view.
If we agree that the crisis echoes the
longest in entrepreneurs` and consumers’
heads, it should therefore be assumed that
it will end no sooner than when people
have accepted its end, and not when
companies’ proits increase. The key
element is their trust in market because the
majority want to believe in (and follow)
the principles and seeks conirmation
that these rules are being followed. This
is why the current crisis has triggered
growing expectations towards business
reliability which includes incorruptibility,
fairness, solidarity and honesty.
Ethics in management applies
mainly to managers’ behaviors – the
way they fulill their duties towards
employees, shareholders, supervisors
and loyal community. Their actions
often depend on what others do (e.g.
their peers, competitors, co-workers).
Their behaviors are also inluenced by
less direct circumstances, such as the
tax system or social pressure. Therefore
managers’ behaviors are triggered both
by internal convictions as well as external
conditions.
It is worth mentioning that in
Poland the category of SME encompasses
micro-companies (94.8% of market
entities), small (4.2%) and medium-sized
(0.8%) which totals 99.8% of enterprises
(PARP report, 2009). The whole number
of SME is approx. 1,780,000 entities. In
order to investigate attitudes of Polish
businesspeople towards ethics, 410
managers of SME from northwestern and
southeastern Poland were interviewed
directly. Due to geographical limitations
and the adopted research method, our
results should be treated cautiously. They
can, however, serve as a starting point for
further research.
Research sample
The vast majority of the enterprises
interviewed operate in the service sphere.
Figure. 1 illustrates the sample’s ield of
operation.
As the results show, men tend to
150 Joanna, Ethics As A Foundation ...
Figure 1. Structure of The Research Sample in Terms of Field of Operation
146; 36%
40; 10%
224; 54%
yes
no, everything is allowed
no opinion
58,40%
54,10%
36%
33%
12,80%
5,60%
0% 50% 100%
women
men
yes
no
no opinion
Figure 3. Answers to: “Are There Any Norms in Business?”in Terms of Respondents’ Sex
be SME managers (55%) more often
than women, although the difference
is slight (10%). They manage service
companies (mainly catering, insurance,
hairdressing, construction). Almost 7%
of the respondents work in production
ields (food, furniture, metal production).
In this research it was of utmost
importance to determine if respondents
obey ethical norms in their operations and
whether or not they believe such norms
should be followed. Figure. 2 illustrates
the results.
It is worth emphasizing that the
question whether there were any norms
to be obeyed in business, only 55% of the
respondents agreed that not everything
is allowed in business. The remaining
people stated that there were no norms
(35%) or they did not have any opinion
on that matter (10%). Attitudes to ethical
restrictions relected differences between
sexes. It was found that women are more
ethical than men – only 5.6% of women
declared that everything is allowed,
whereas 12.8% of men agreed with this
view (Figure 3).
Another important issue was
determining whether entrepreneurs
believed there were any improper
Figure 1. Structure of The Research Sample in Terms of Field of Operation
Figure 2. Answers to: “Are There Any Norms in Business?”
Figure 3. Answers to: “ Are There Any Norms in Business ? in Terms of Respondents’ Sex
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 151
behaviors in the context of business
operations, and if so – what they were.
Figure. 4 presents the results.
Among respondents who believed
there were certain norms to be followed,
28% of them could not name any (question
mark in the legend). The remaining
respondents listed cheating customers,
unfair competition, mistreating employees and illegal activities. I can be noticed
that no social or environmental issues
were mentioned.
Considering the commonly felt
emphasis on ecologic and social matters,
it is worth asking whether respondents
believe that the environment should
be cared for and whether companies
should share their proits with the
needy. Figure. 5 illustrates respondents’
answers to the former question.
The obtained results reveal that
in general businessmen believe that
28%
33%
12%
13%
8% 2% 4%
? cheating clients unfair competition
mistreating employees illegal activities corruption pactices
other
57,80%
92,40%
Does your company
care about it?
Should companies
care about the
environment?
yes
environmental DOs and DON’Ts concern
others and not them - they often do not
care about the environment themselves
(over 42% do nothing in that respect).
On the other hand, as many as 58% of the
respondents take steps that can beneit the
environment. Women tend to display more
sensitivity towards ecomatters than men.
95.7% of them stated that market entities
should care about the environment.
Among men, 89% of the respondents
shared this view. Figure. 6 presents an
overview of actions taken most frequently
to protect the environment.
The vast majority of businesses
segregate garbage. It was listed by 51.7% of
the respondents who tried to take any steps
to protect the environment. Furthermore,
they listed four more important actions
to protect the environment, such as using
modern technological solutions (12.2%),
recycling waste (8.8%), segregating
Figure 4. Answers to: “ What Behaviors Are Improper in Business?”
Figure 5. Answers to: “In General, Should Companies Care About the Environment and
Does Your Company Care About It?”
152 Joanna, Ethics As A Foundation ...
production waste (6.6%) and using
biodegradable materials (5.5%).
According to some, a person
possesses what they worked for so there
is no obligation to share it with others.
However, others believe that there is
a certain responsibility to care for the
needy and the unsuccessful. A question
arises, then: do the businesspeople
think they should share what they have?
Figure. 7 illustrates the answers. One
should notice that when answering the
question whether or not it is advised to
share with the needy, the respondents
were not as unanimous as they were
when asked about the environment. Some
of them (51%) stated that one should
share – women turned out to be more
altruistic (55.3%) than men (48.6%). The
7
4
7
9
10
12
16
22
93
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Other
Sells eco-products
Saves materials and
energy
Does not pollute the
environment
Uses biodegradable
materials, packaging
Segregates production
waste
Directs its waste to
recycling
Uses modern technological
solutions
Segregates garbage
No. of answers
Figure 6. Answers to: “What Does Your Company Do to Protect The Environment?”
remaining businessmen either stipulated
conditions under which they may help
(such as knowing the exact purpose of
their donations) or stated directly that
everyone must count on themselves only.
Unwillingness towards helping the needy
was, however, displayed only by some of
the respondents, as 31% of them wanted
to help others.
All questions answered by the
respondents focused on good and bad
practices in business. They were designed
to determine if managers should obey
unwritten norms and whether ethics in
business operations is vital. Figure. 8
illustrates the answers.
The average of 3.95 indicates that
respondent are aware of the importance
of ethical norms that regulate business
Figure 6. Answers to: “What Does Your Company Do to Protect The Environment?”
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 153
activities. And although 9.75% of them
stated that ethics is unimportant to them,
37.8% of those asked chose the maximum
grade of 5. It is worth mentioning
that women were more aware of the
importance of fair conduct – their average
was 4.19. Men, on the other hand, were
less inclined to notice the importance of
ethical aspects in business. Men’s average
was 3.82.
Discussion
In literature one can ind claims
that changes in the European posttransformation countries ignored the issue
of moral principles (Riha,1994). One
can also read that these countries have
34
94
73
209
0 50 100 150 200 250
no
I do not know
yes, but conditionally
yes
No. of answers
Figure 7. Answers to: “Should People Share With the Needy?”
progressed from primitive socialism to
primitive capitalism. Instead of protests,
abuses and misbehaviors are met with
cynicism, intolerance and ruthlessness,
and faulty laws are chronically broken
(Röpke,1950). One may draw two
conclusions, then: irstly, overthrowing
communism does not equal getting rid of
its laws and secondly, problems caused
by economic crisis overlap with those
resulting from social changes.
It seems that one of the fundamental
questioned raised by ethics is the relations
between the desire to possess goods and
live well versus imperatives of social
morality, which often emphasize the
importance of helping others, compassion
Figure 7. Answers to: “Should People Share With the Needy?”
135
79
28
12
0 1
50
100
150
200
1 2 3 4 5
Grade
Figure 8. Answers to: “ How Important is Ethics in Business? “
(1 – least important, 5 - most important )
No. of answers
154 Joanna, Ethics As A Foundation ...
and voluntary commitment. Some
economists postulate in their papers that
business ethics and general ethics should
be treated separately. Such attitude is
displayed e.g. by A. Carr, who stated in
his article in 1968 that business ethics is a
sort of game whose rules are well-known
to everyone, therefore nobody expects it to
be identical to personal or religious ethics
(Carr, 1968). On the other hand, however,
everyone of use participates in this game
– we are all either suppliers or consumers
of certain goods. For this reason it is hard
to say that ethics in management should
be considered solely as group ethics as
it pertains to the whole society. Given
the above, it can be said that behaviors
of managers should be in keeping with
ethics of a particular community.
Assuming that impeccable ethics
is only an unattainable illusion, a compromise needs to be found between
dictates of ethics and reaching particular
life goals. Such compromise must also
include business activity and approaches
towards global concerns, such as
ecology (Goulet, 1997). Based on the
abovementioned assumptions, we may
argue that the interviewed respondents
did not feel they were an integral element
of the environment in which they operate.
Such conclusion is drawn from the fact
that when answering the question “What
behavior should not be accepted in
business?”, not a single person mentioned
any environmental issues. It may be
treated as a conirmation of Riha’s view,
who states that transforming countries
loose some values and it is necessary to
awake people’s sensitivity to issues that –
seemingly – do not concern them directly.
This assumption is clearly visible when
the interviewed respondents are taken
into account: 45% of them don’t think
there are any rules in business. And it is
hard to determine whether is results from
the inancial crisis or if it is a permanent
lack of sensitivity.
As conclusions of the research
suggest, 38.8% of SME representatives
was able to list a norm that – in their
opinions – is vital in business. Most often
they pointed to not cheating their clients,
fair competition and fair treatment of their
employees. The spheres are so closely
related to the future of each entity that
these answers seem obvious. In broader
context, these principles condition
further development of the company,
allow existence of competition and
healthy market, and it may be assumed
that they enable economic and cultural
advancement of the society (Clark, 2002).
Helping the needy or caring about
the environment are, in respondents’ view,
important obligations, but not theirs,
apparently. Almost all of the respondents
claim that the environment must be
taken care of, but only 58% actually care
about it. Moreover, their only effort is
to segregate garbage, which seems to be
quite limited in the face of opportunities
their companies have.
Since ethics is a set of rules binding
at a particular time at a given location, it
is worth asking if we actually perceive
the environment as a capital that needs to
be preserved for future generations and
whether businesspeople are exempt from
that duty. If we argue that the current
condition of the environment is a priority
for the society, then the society should
demand an active role of businesspeople,
who should – as a result – display ethical
behavior because without it, the market
is going to be an arena for egoistic and
immoral operations (Machan, 1999).
Analyzing behaviors of the
interviewed businesspeople, it can be
concluded that some of them have not
yet shaken the remains of the former,
communist system and are already
„forced” to follow modern values.
This assumption, however, pertains
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 155
only to some companies since it must
be remembered that the most dynamic
development of SME in Poland took
place between 2002-2008, i.e. under the
new system. Therefore the impression of
lack of norms most likely results from
challenging, crisis-related circumstances.
These may be the reason why respondents
were so unwilling to share with the needy,
according to the research only 31%
wanted to share.
In this context it is worth considering businesspeople’s willingness
to help others in relations to their sex.
The results show that sex may be one
of the determinants of ethical behavior
in business. Calculating the level of
women’s increased sensitivity, however,
requires additional research.
It may be assumed that all people
want to follow socially accepted rules of
behavior and only mindless individuals
choose to live opportunistically and
follow random motives. It turns out that
the latter statement pertains to some of
the interviewed businesspeople, therefore
it would be advisable to remind them of
principles of common sense (utilitarian
philosophy), as well as emphasize that
modern business entities succeed not
only in terms of sales dynamics or
innovations. As practice shows, while
choosing a cooperant between two
equally eficient companies, usually
the one which operates in honest and
reliable way is selected. Consequently,
such company will gain competitive
advantage in the long run, one that could
not be obtained in any other way. This is
why enterprises increasingly often try to
list elements of their corporate culture
as strategic ethical programs which
determine standards for: management
decision-making processes, employees’
conduct, company operations on the
market and in its community (Gasparski,
Lewicka-Strzałecka, Rok, Szulczewski
2002). What follows is the real value
for the entrepreneurs as the market
position is increasingly often related to
trustworthiness, positive associations,
perceived quality, reliability and fair
treatment of employees; in other words,
all the elements of the company image.
The image is also inluenced by ethics
and ethics-related social responsibilities
of entrepreneurs that should be treated as
an investment in improving future market
position of the company.
CONCLUSIONS
Deliberations presented in this paper
tend to assume that businesspeople
constitute a part of their society and
therefore should obey social norms.
Empirical research proves, however,
that this „social imperative” does not
translate into attitudes presented by
people running small and medium-sized
enterprises. The research showed that
45% of the interviewed respondents
believed that there were no rules to play
by. Among those who agreed that not
everything is allowed in business, 28%
could not name any commonly respected
social rule. It could be argued, then,
that Polish businesspeople are not fully
convinced that ethics is a fundamental
value in their operations. Although it is
hard to determine whether it stems from
current economic situation or is related
to some other causes, one may see that
a large portion of the respondents was
focused on their own needs rather than
social ones. Such attitude should not
be fully condemned as it is commonly
believed that an effective businessperson
creates job opportunities, provides market
offers, pays taxes and aids the development
of a particular community, therefore while
caring about their own business, in a
sense they do care about the needs of their
environment. Current situation, however,
156 Joanna, Ethics As A Foundation ...
allows to advocate ethical business conduct
among small and medium-sized entities’
managers, highlighting the beneits for their
companies.
As this paper has shown, the
literature and practice provides
contradictory opinions about the role of
ethics in business operations. It is worth
mentioning that the less ethical the society,
the less ethical the business. Irrespectively
of the current situation, whether it is a
bull or bear market, the level of obeying
ethical norms in business management
depends on general ethical sensitivity
displayed by a particular society, which is
both conditioned historically and related
to current economic situation.
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CONSUMER TRUST AND COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
(Chinese Product Case on Indonesian Market)
Hotniar Siringoringo1
E.S. Margianti
Anacostia Kowanda
Trini Saptariani
Gunadarma University
Jalan Margonda Raya No 100 Depok 16424 Indonesia
1hotniars@staff.gunadarma.ac.id
Abstract
Study on Indonesian consumer trust towards Chinese products is rarely found. Low
trust towards Chinese as producer as well as towards Chinese products perhaps is
admitted by almost all consumers. However up to this time period this hasn’t become
researcher’s interest. The objective of the study is thus to identify consumer trust
towards Chinese products. Electronics product particularly was chosen as research
object based on its penetration on Indonesian markets. For this purpose questionnaire was used as research instrument. It was distributed to more than 300 respondents. Results show that consumer trust towards Chinese products is measured using
four indicators, such as faith and believe in Chinese products, Chinese high technology and long lasting live. Country of origin has ive valid indicators which
are Chinese innovativeness on electronics products, Chinese high technology, Chinese creativity in design, good quality in manufacture, and China as prestigious
country. The highest contributor in building country of origin is its high technology. On trust factor, the highest contributor is customer believe in Chinese
electronics products. It also shows that country of origin inluence customer
trust signiicantly.
Key Words : consumer trust, country of origin, Chinese products, Indonesian market.
INTRODUCTION
Indonesian market is a very potential market to every producer considering number of population in 2010 is noted around
237 641 326 persons. Among them statistics noted around 169 millions are in the
age of work labors (15-64 years old). The
attractiveness of Indonesian market is not
just its huge population but rather consumer behavior which is more interested
with imported products. Among imported
products, Chinese pro-ducts are easy to
ind on any markets. The products are
ranging from households products, garment, food, cosmetics, electronics, etc.
Up to 2003, China hasn’t been reported individually as a country origin
of Indonesian import. Instead of China,
Hongkong was found as one of dominant
exporter to Indonesia. But afterwards up
to now, China is positioned as number
one exporter for various products, such
as electronics products, foods, and fruits.
Oficially, Chinese products are counted
18.5% of imported market share in year
2010 (Anonim, 2011). Not to mention
black market products which are distri-
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 159
buted transparency or veiled.
Although consumer cynicism towards Chinese products quality will be
heard frequently but they still keep look
and buy Chinese products. It can be noted that consumer trust to Chinese products quality is very low. It seems contrary
to the importance of trust in marketing
(Sahay, 2003). Indeed, many researchers
have identiied that trust is considered to
be, along with commitment, communication and satisfaction, one of the basic
pillars supporting the relationship marketing theory (Gundlach and Murphy,
1993; Ganesan, 1994; Coulter and Coulter, 2002).
Trust may be deined as a set of
beliefs held by a consumer as to certain
characteristics of the supplier, as well as
the possible behavior of the supplier in the
future (Ganesan, 1994; Coulter and Coulter, 2002). By providing the keywords
“Chinese products” on search engines
like google, hundreds of thousands of results will be demonstrated in less than a
percent second for the conditions of Internet speed in Jakarta, Indonesia. Results
indicated by search engine mostly are the
news or an individual review of the concerns of defeating local products by Chinese product. Study on consumer trust
towards Chinese products is rarely found.
Low trust towards Chinese as producer as
well as towards Chinese products perhaps
is admitted by almost all consumers but
up to this time period this hasn’t become
researcher’s interest.
Trust as mentioned before is a very
important aspect on marketing practices.
Trust towards an object is not suddenly
appeared. Various aspects perhaps have
role in creating trust, such as privacy and
security on internet transaction (Kruck,
Gottovi, Moghadami, Broom, and Forcht,
2002; Gavish and Gerdes, 1998), Country Of Origin (COO), etc. COO-trust
relationship can be drawn from COO
study on consumer behavior (Schooler,
1965; Nagashima, 1970; Bilkey and Nes,
1982; Roth and Romeo, 1982; Johansson,
Douglas and Nonaka, 1985; Kumara and
Canhua, 2010). Schooler (1965) studied
COO effects on consumers’ opinions of
products, and concluded that COO shows
an effect on consumers’ evaluations. Nagashima (1970) deines country image
as the picture, presentation and stereotype that businesspeople and consumers
attach to products of a speciic country.
This image is created by such variables
as representative products, national characteristics, economic and political background, history, and tradition. Bilkey and
Nes (1982) deine a product’s COO as
the country of manufacturer or assembly.
Johansson, et al. (1985) deine it as the
country where corporate headquarters of
the company located. According to Roth
and Romeo (1982), COO is the overall
consumer’s perception form of products from a particular country, based on
their prior perceptions of the country’s
production and marketing strengths and
weaknesses. Kumara and Canhua (2010)
studied the effect of COO on consumer
expectation and showed the existing of
effect.
However, up to now it is rare to
ind the study of consumer trust towards
Chinese products as well as its antecedent. Study on general consumer trust such
as brand trust showed the effect of familiarity, security, privacy, word-of-mouth,
advertising, and brand image (Chow and
Holden, 1997; Delgodo-Ballester and
Munuera-Alema´n, 2001; Garbarino and
Johnson, 1999; Hoffman, Novak, and
Peralca, 1999; Wernerfelt, 1991). The objective of the study is thus to identify consumer trust towards Chinese products.
160 Hotniar et al, Consumer Trust...
RESEARCH METHOD
Research model is shown on Figure 1.
Customer trust is measured using four
indicators and country of origin is measured using ive indicators. The inluence
of country of origin towards customer
trust is investigated.
A questionnaire was designed
to measure trust and COO. Based on
trust deinition as a set of belief, it has
identiied various dimensions in trust.
Among these dimensions, perceived honesty and beneence are the most often been
associated with consumer trust. Honesty
(credibility) relates to sincerity. Honesty
indicates the certainty the consumer has
in the business’ sincerity. and the fact
that it keeps its promises (Gundlach and
Murphy, 1993). Beneence is related to
the consumer’s belief that the company
is interested in his welfare, that it does
not intend to show opportunist behavior
(Larzelere and Huston, 1980), and that it
is motivated by the quest for joint beneit
(Doney and Cannon, 1997). Based on this
explanation, consumer trust on this case
was developed to measure beneence dimension. It was developed four (4) indicators, i.e.:
1. I believe in Chinese electronic
products
Figure 1. Research Model
COO1
COO2
COO3
COO4
COO5
origin trust
T1
T2
T3
T4
2. I have conident in Chinese
electronic products
3. Chinese electronic products
use high technology
4. Chinese electron products
have long lasting
Trust antecedent on this case is COO.
COO is measured using ive (5) indicators as shown below:
1. China is known as innovative
in electronics products
2. China posses advanced tech
nology
3. China is good in design
4. Chinese production maintain
ing good quality
5. China is a prestigious coun
try
Respondents to the study were Chinese products customers. Prior to trust
and COO measurement, questionnaire
was validated. For this purpose, questionnaires were distributed to 20 respondents.
Valid questionnaire further were distributed to more than 300 respondents. Data
collected was analyzed using Structural
Equation Modeling (SEM) considering
concerned variables are latent in nature.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Validity test shows that all country of ori-
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 161
gin indicators have high construct validity. Product Pearson moment correlation
between each indicator with total is far
above 0.5 and signiicant at 1 percent.
Correlation and signiicance of COO1,
COO2, COO3, COO$, and COO5 respectively are 0.761 (0.000), 0.662 (0.001),
0.738 (0.000), 0.769 (0.000), and 0.676
(0.001). It means all indicators are good
measurement for country of origin. Even
though all ive indicators show signiicance at 1 percent, COO4 which is “China has a good quality in manufacture,”
has the biggest correlation.
Same evident was found on trust
variable. Four indicators of trust have
good construct validity. Correlation and
signiicance of trust1, trust2, trust3, and
trust4 respectively are 0.919 (0.000),
0.790 (0.000), 0.842 (0.000), and 0.845
(0.000). It shows all indicators are perfect measurement for trust variable.
Valid questionnaire further was distributed to more than 300 respondents.
Of these respondents, a number of 150
were returned back. Data collected was
coded as ordinal scale. Following, Conirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was
performed to validate research model.
Validity of the model is based on goodness of it statistics. The most important
to be used to validate the model among it
statistics indexes are Chi Square (p value), Root Mean Square Error Approximation (RMSEA), Normed Fit Index (NFI),
Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Root Mean
Residual (RMR), and Goodness of Fit Index (GFI). The value of those indexes for
country of origin-customer trust relationship is shown on Table 1.
Chi-Square is a statistics it which
speciied whether model provides is a
perfect it to data (within the limits of
sampling error). Decision towards the hypothesis can be tested based on p-value.
P-value greater than 0.05 indicates good
it and closer to 1 indicates perfect it. As
shown on Table 1 p-value of proposed
model is 0.59859 which is above 0.05. It
can be interpreted that the model shows a
very good it to the data.
Second it statistics is RMSEA.
RMSEA indicates the close it of model in
relation with degrees of freedom (Joregsborg and Sorborg, 1989; Browne and Cudeck, 1993; Steiger 1990). Value 0.05 or
below is very close, 0.08 and below still
acceptable, but never used 0.1 and above.
Hu and Bentler (1999) recommend a cutoff value of .06. A p-value for testing the
hypothesis that the discrepancy is smaller
than .05 may be calculated (test of close
it). As showing on Table 1, RMSEA is
0.000, much lower than 0.05. As such
data showing a perfect it to the model.
Norm Fit Index (NFI) suggested
by Bentler and Bonett’s (1980) is an independent model testing. NFI shows how
much better the model its as compare to
the independence model. It measures the
proportionate improvement in it (deined
in terms of f or 2) as one moves from the
baseline to the target model. Value close
to 0.9 indicates a good model it. NFI value for this model is 0.985 which is above
of 0.9. It means that the model is it well
to the data. However, NFI has problem
that it is biased downward for small N so
that not recommended by Hu and Bentler
(1999).
Non-Normed Fit Index (NNFI)
modiied version of NFI designed to lessen its dependence on sample size. However, it may be biased upward for small N
when the model is misspeciied, and the
parsimony correction may be inappropriate. Hu and Bentler (1999) recommend a
cutoff value of .95 but other recommend
0.9. NNFI for this study is 1.000, relects
a very good it.
CFI is measurement of the proportionate improvement in it (deined
in terms of noncentrality) as one moves
from the baseline to the target model. Hu
and Bentler (1999) recommend a cutoff
value of .95. CFI for this study verify a
162 Hotniar et al, Consumer Trust...
very good it as it shows value of 1.000.
Goodness of it Index (GFI) is proportion of the variances and covariances
in S accounted for by the itted model.
This index should fall between 0 and 1,
although it can be smaller than 0. Values
greater than 0.9 sometimes deemed desirable. However this index is not recommended by Hu and Bentler (1999). GFI
for this study is 0.987, means a very good
it of the model.
Adjusted GFI is adjustment based
on the same logic as in the case of an
adjusted R2. Values greater than .9 are
sometimes deemed desirable. Similar to
GFI, it is not recommended by Hu and
Bentler (1999). AGFI for this study is
0.960 which means a very good it for the
data. Overall, it can be said that the model
is showing a very good it to the data.
Figure 2 shows CFA of the model.
Country of Origin (COO-origin) is valid measured using ive indicators. All indicators are
shown valid with factor loading respectively
for COO1, COO2, COO3, COO4, and COO5
are 0.83, 1.37, 0.87, 0.37, and 0.38. All factor
loadings are positive. It means the more indicators be improved, the better China image as a
country of origin of electronics product. Chinese
image as a country of origin of electronics products in this case is composed by Chinese innovativeness on electronics products, its high
technology, creativity in design, good quality in manufacture, and its’ prestigious as
a country.
The validity of indicator of “China
is a prestigious country” may be considered as stated by theory “the effect of size
and reputation towards trust (Jarvenpaa
and Tractinsky, 1999). China is the largest country in this world. However some
researchers found that reputation and size
are important in forming consumer trust
(Grazioli and Jarvenpaa, 2000; Pavlou,
2003; Kim, Xu, and Koh, 2004; Koufaris
and Hampton-Sosa, 2004). Chinese image
on customer mind as a country of origin of
electronics products is dominantly built by its
high technology.
The attribute role of COO refers to
the believing effect on product evaluations. Notice that the statement no 1 until 5 show respondent believe in Chinese
electronic products. More concretely, respondent believes that China is innovative in producing electronics products.
This innovativeness is supported by the
possession of advanced technology.
Customer trust towards Chinese products consists of four indicators. All indicators
are valid measurement for trust. All factor
loadings are positive so that any improvement
in any indicator will bring an improvement
on customer trust. Factor loading of customer
believe in Chinese electronics products, conidentiality on Chinese electronic products,
perceiving deploying high technology, and
long lasting life of electronic product respectively are 0.75, 0.88, 0.61, and 0.54. Based on
this statistics it can be stated that Indonesian
consumers have conidentiality on Chinese
electronic products.
The effect of COO on customer trust
is signiicant for 1%. It means that COO inluences customer trust strongly. With this
study it shows the direct relationship between
Table 1.
Goodness of fit statistics
Index Acceptance value Value
Chi-Square (P-value) > 0.01 0.59859
Root Mean Square Error (RMSEA) <0.08 0.000
Normed Fit Index (NFI) Close to 0.9 is a very good fit 0.985
Non-Normed Fit Index (NNFI) Close to 0.9 is a very good fit 1.000
Comparative Fit Index (CFI) Close to 0.9 is a very good fit 1.000
Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) Close to 0.9 is a very good fit 0.987
Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) Close to 0.9 is a very good fit 0.960
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 163
COO and consumer trust. Most previous researches on COO show its direct effect on
product evaluation (Bilkey and Nes 1982;
Janda and Rao, 1997; Peterson and Jolibert,
1995; Roth and Romeo, 1992), buyer perception (Peterson and Jolibert, 1995; Roth and
Romeo, 1992; Quester, Dzever, and Chetty,
2000), customer attitudes and subsequent
choice behavior (Samiee, 1994), buying intentions (Bilkey and Nes 1982; Ozsomer
and Cavusgil 1991; Monroe 1973; Rao
and Monroe 1989; Dodds, Monroe, and
Grewal 1991). Instead of direct effect, Li,
Monroe, and Chan (1994) showed the indirect inluence of COO on buying intention thorough perceived value in which
perceived value is inluenced directly by
perceived quality and perceived quality is
inluenced directly by COO. Further they
showed that COO inluences perceived
quality positively. Subsequently perceived quality inluences perceived value
positively. Finally perceived value inluences buying intention positively.
Relating to product evaluations, Li
and Monroe (1992) showed that COO
plays two roles, namely, signaling and
attribute roles. Speciically, the signaling role of COO information suggests
that consumers use it as a signal to infer
whether a country possesses the necesFigure 2. CFA of Research Model
1.17 COO1
0.63 COO2
0.21 COO3
0.67 COO4
0.67 COO5
origin trust
T1 0.30
T2 0.05
T3 0.42
T4 0.38
Chi-Square=13.05, df=15, P-value=0.59859, RMSEA=0.000
0.75
0.88
0.61
0.54
0.83
1.37
0.87
0.37
0.38
0.18
0.16
-0.37
0.21
sary skills in manufacturing a product (a
cognitive product evaluation process).
On consumer trust itself, it can be
found studies on brand trust, online shopping trust, etc. As stated above, familiarity, security, privacy, word-of-mouth,
advertising, and brand image inluences
brand trust (Chow and Holden, 1997; Delgodo-Ballester and Munuera-Alema´n,
2001; Garbarino and Johnson, 1999;
Hoffman, et al., 1999; Wernerfelt, 1991).
Analogically to brand trust, this theory is
applicable to consumer trust towards particular country’s product. It means that
consumer trust towards Chinese electronics products is inluenced by familiarity,
security, privacy, word-of-mouth, advertising, and country image. Country image
in this sense is measured on COO. Speciically, brand trust on online shopping
is a concern and found the existence of
familiarity analysis (Chaudhuri and Holbrook, 2001; Cheskin Research and Sapient, 1999; Garbarino and Johnson, 1999;
Hoffman et al., 1999; Tractinsky, Jarvenpaa, Vitale, and Saarinen, 1999; Urban et
al., 2000).
Factors affecting brand trust on online purchase are privacy, security, brand
name, word of mouth, experience, and
information (Ha, 2004). Ha (2004) perFigure 2. CFA of Research Model
164 Hotniar et al, Consumer Trust...
formed the study on internet consumer
behavior. Ha (2004) found that the higher privacy and security the higher brand
trust. It is also found that perceptions of
favorable and reputable Web site as a
brand on the Internet are associated with
higher levels of brand trust; the Web sites
built by positive WOM are perceived to
have higher levels of brand trust than
marketer-controlled advertising; Experiences that are enjoyed through speciic
Web sites are perceived as having the
highest level of brand trust; and the perceived level of brand trust increases with
the quality of information offered.
The strong effect of COO on trust
on this study therefore is supported by
those studies as the idea to investigate
COO-consumer trust relationship is also
stem from consumer experiences with
Chinese electronics products. Many of
them showed the effect of experience on
consumer trust. As shown above, familiarity inluences brand trust. According
to Alba and Hutchinson (1987), brand
familiarity is a continuous variable that
relects a consumer’s level of direct and
indirect experiences with a product. It’s
common to hear consumer scrutiny towards Chinese products.
Concluded from above explanation, the direct effect of COO on consumer trust which is found on this study
is a new concept. This concept is important to marketers in placing the “made
in” label on their products. As a matter
of fact, consumer cynicism towards Chinese products quality will be heard frequently. However they still keep look and
buy Chinese products. As shown on this
study COO plays positive effect on consumer trust towards Chinese electronics
products. Therefore above presumption
that consumer trust to Chinese products
quality is very low is rejected.
More important, consumer trust
plays some important role in consumer
behavior. Further brand trust affect brand
commitment (Ha, 2004). Pavlou (2003)
showed the role of trust in inluencing
consumer intention indirectly thorough
perceived risk, perceived usefulness, and
perceived easy of use. Repeating buying
is the result of buying intention. Prior to
buying intention, consumer trust plays
role in building perceived risk, perceived
usefulness, and perceived easy of use.
Perceived risk, perceived usefulness, and
perceived easy of use subsequently play
role in building buying intention. As for
Chinese electronics products case, trust is
not the main factor affecting repeat buying
(Siringoringo, Murtiasih, and Susilowati,
2011). They showed that price is the most
important consideration in deciding buying Chinese electronics products. Following are availability and promotion. Trust
itself plays as the fourth order in inluencing intention to buy.
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION
Consumer trust towards Chinese electronics
products is measured using four indicators,
namely, faith and believe in Chinese products, Chinese high technology, and long lasting live. Those indicators are valid manifest variables to consumer trust towards
Chinese electronics products. Country
of origin has ive valid indicators which
are Chinese innovativeness on electronics
products, Chinese high technology, Chinese
creativity in design, good quality in manufacture, and China as prestigious country. The highest contributor in building
country of origin is its high techno-logy.
On trust factor, the highest contributor is
customer believe in Chinese electronics
products. It also shows that country of origin inluence customer trust signiicantly. Positive image on China as electronics
products producer contributes in enhancing consumer trust towards Chinese electronics products.
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 165
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168 Bielik et al, ATheory, Reality ...
THEORY, REALITY AND PERCEPTION OF CSR: COMPARATIVE STUDY
BETWEEN INDIA AND THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC
Peter Bielik1
Elena Horsk21
Andrea Ubreziova3
Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Slovak Republic
1Peter.Bielik@uniag.sk
2correspondent author : Elena.Horska@fem.uniag.sk
2Andrea.Ubreziova@fem.uniag.sk
Abstract
During last decades global society has witnessed remarkable growth of global issues,
both on social and environmental level, that have resulted in broad changes in the
global economy. These aspects have increased the neccesity for more systematic
and sustainable approach towards the way business is done on local and global
level. Therefore, corporate social responsiblity (CSR) has become an effective tool,
many companies have decided to apply within domestic as well as international
environment. The main goal of this paper is therefore to describe CSR policy and
strategies of McDonald’s – worldwide fast food chain leader. Moreover, we analyze
reasons of different perception of McDonald’s CSR strategies between Indian and
Slovak consumers. CSR has become an important instrument to develop and implement
more responsible business strategies that contributes not only to development of
companies’ themselves, but towards development of society and environment as
well. Although, we can ind difference in approach towards CSR implementation
in business strategies and the strenght of their impact on society and environment.
Signiicant role in the strenght and kinds of inluence CSR has, plays the context in
which companies are motivated to support and develop CSR strategies and the type
of innitiative. Various approaches (including motives and innitiatives) can results
in different perceptions of company’s CSR strategies and attempts as we will see in
presented case comparative study.
Key words: consumer, corporate social responsibility (CSR), global environment,
local business, perception, sustainable business
INTRODUCTION
In general, CSR can be deined as
‘voluntary alignment‘of social and
economical goals within business
activities of a company (Dytrt, 2006). It
can be understood as a building process of
trust among business partners following
economical as well as social aspects
of their activities. CSR is one of the
most eficient tools that help to achieve
missions and objectives of the companies
and in the same time it is a tool that is
interconnecting and honoring the triple
bottom line: people, proit, planet (Bielik
–Smutka – Horská, 2009). There are
several reasons why CSR concept has been
established as increasing competition,
change of consumers’ position, higher
social and environmental awareness
of global society, changing attitude of
investors preferring not only economical
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 169
attitude considering business activities,
accelerating economic globalization
with special focus on transnational
(TNCs) companies, etc. (Zemigala,
2007, Audl, Bernstein, Cashore, 2008).
While analyzing CSR it is important
to distinguish among its three levels:
economical, social, environmental level
(Zorkociova, 2007).
From the companies point of view,
applying CSR strategy contributes not
only to sustainable business and success
on markets, but is has become a synonym
for ‘competitiveness‘ too. CSR fosters
relationships among companies, trade
unions and NGOs as well as with those
directly involved in the company,
customers and the public in general(Davis,
2005). However, companies‘competitive
advantage is a combination of various
aspects. Even in terms of CSR as
competitive advantage, the dilemma
of standarding or adaption holds on
(Cateora, Graham, 2006). Expectations
of both ethical and socially responsible
conduct can vary in cultures of different
countries, although they may be quite
common to many countries, particularly
if they are culturally close. Even
among those, the speciic interpretation,
implementation and priorities of ethics
and social responsibility could vary.
Thus, an MNC must take into account
the stakeholders at the three tiers as it
formulates core CSR goals and strategies
at the levels of MNC headquarters (HQ),
region and host country (Horská, Löbl,
Rovný 2010).
According to Webb, Mohr, Harris
(2008) socially responsible consumption
is increasing and many companies
are responding to the desires and, in
some cases, demands of socially and
environmentally responsible consumers.
Socially responsible consumption (SRC)
can be understood as a wish to express
social and environmental concerns through
consumption choices (Gonzales, Korchia,
Menuet, Urbian, 2009). The deinition of
SRC assumes two dimensions, claims
Lau (2010): environmental and more
general social concern. Horska (2009)
deines socially responsible consumer
as a person well -informed aware of
his/her consumption habits choosing
consumption that maximize positive and
minimize negative effects on society
and environment. SCR can be seen as
a social change and collective learning.
In spite of the fact, only in recent years
a pervasive communication effort has
been made to encourage questioning and
critical behavior among consumers. (CP/
RAC, 2009).
Following ideas presented above, the
purpose of the study is therefore to describe
and evaluate current CSR status in terms of
a chosen MNCs (McDonald’s corporation),
to verify the differences in perception of
McDonald’s CSR by Slovak and Indian
consumers, to analyze inluence of existing
CSR strategies on consumers behavior on
markets of McDonald’s (Slovak and Indian)
and to describe possible strategies and
steps that could improve current status of
CSR strategies and activities and increase
inluence in change of consumers’ behavior
towards socially responsible consumption
(SRC).
RESEARCH METHODS
Research paper presented is based on
primary data gathered via questionnaire
survey called “Corporate Social
Responsibility of McDonald’s”. The
survey was conducted during November
2010 – February 2011 on Slovak and
Indian market. Sources for secondary
data were Corporate Responsibility report
of McDonald’s 2009, 2010 as well as
inancial reports and articles related to the
topic on company’s website.
Questionnaire that helped us to
170 Bielik et al, ATheory, Reality ...
obtain primary data for our research
consisted of 4 questions considering
basic information about respondent form
India and Slovakia and 15 questions
considering various aspects of corporate
social responsibility of McDonald’s. For
evaluation of the questionnaire contingency
tables were used. The contingency table
served us as the basis for interpretation and
evaluation of data gained via survey.
In order to support our inding,
panel discussion with Indian and Slovak
consumers was provided. Panel discussion
can be characterized as discussion of a
subject of public interest by a group of
persons forming a panel usually before an
audience. Information gained via panel
served us as feedback for information
presented in survey.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Since been established in 1955 by Mr.
Ray Kroc, McDonald’s corporation has
become the biggest fast food retailer
acting on markets worldwide. Currently,
McDonald’s is the leading fast food
service retailer with approximately
32 737 restaurants around the world in
117 countries. At the end of 2010, more
than 43% of McDonald’s stores were
situated in USA.
The second largest group of
McDonald’s restaurants (26%) was
located in APMEA (the geographic
sector of Asia, Paciic, Middle East and
Africa), 21% is in the geographic sector
of Europe, with 6% in Latin America and
4% situated in Canada. More the 75% of
McDonald’s stores around the world is
owned and operated (based on principles
of franchising) by independent local
businesswomen/men.
According to the Annual Report
2010, McDonald’s Corporation achieved
strong results in year 2010 and it continues
to strengthen its position around the
world mainly through connection with
customers. The principles of McDonald’s
in relation to its customers consist of
exceeding the customers’ expectations at
any time and providing customers with
unparalleled levels of Quality, Service,
Cleanliness and Value as well as constant
process of building trust and honesty.
The process is applied in relation
towards Corporate, Franchise and
Supplier partners as well. In alignment
with motto “Better, not just bigger”
McDonald’s served every day in 2010 of
64 million customers thanks to 1,7 million
employees worldwide, in comparison to
58 million customers each day in 2008.
Additionally, McDonald’s restaurants
generated in 2010 total revenues of US
$24 075 million, which represents an
increase by 6 % in comparison to US $
22 745 million in 2009. Considering the
amount of total revenues, the United
States (U.S.), Europe, and Asia/Paciic,
Middle East and Africa (APMEA) can
be mentioned as signiicant reportable
segments. The U.S., Europe and APMEA
segments account for 34%, 40% and
21% of total revenues, respectively.
The United Kingdom (U.K.), France
and Germany,collectively, account for
over 50% of Europe’s revenues. China,
Australia and Japan, collectively, account
for over 50% of APMEA’s revenues.
These six markets along with the U.S. and
Canada are referred to as “major markets”
and comprise approximately 70% of total
revenues of McDonald’s.
McDonald’s in Slovakia
McDonald’s has been operating in
Slovakia since 1995 with irst restaurant
opened in Banska Bystrica. Over the years
1995 – 2010 McDonald’s was continually
expanding its restaurant chain. Currently,
23 McDonald’s restaurants are situated in
area of the Slovak republic with more than
1547 employees serving 14, 4 million
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 171
customers per day in 2010. During its
existence (15 years), more than 89 million
customers were served in McDonald’s
restaurants in Slovakia. Numbers of
customers were growing constantly as we
can see on Figure. 1 below.
Considering customers, our research
conducted in 2010 – 2011 in region of
Nitra showed that the largest group of
customers is represented by young people
in age category 16 – 24 years (77, 3%),
mostly student with secondary or higher
education (79,1%). The largest group
of customers coming to McDonald’s
restaurant regularly (at least one time
per month – 41% of respondents) was
represented by student aged 16 – 24
years with secondary education (53, 6%)
mainly from city area.
As the most frequent argument
to visit McDonald’s, 38% customers
reported comfort and ‘time save’, 21%
discount coupons and 15% wide range of
products. In accordance to the customers’
growth, McDonald’s revenues have been
increasing continually by exceeding the
value of one billion (33, 8 million €) in
2007. In 2010 McDonald’s generated
revenues at level of 47, 9 million €
exceeding revenues of 42, 5 million €
in 2009 by approximately 12, 6%. In
upcoming period McDonald’s plans to
expand the number of restaurants (10)
mainly with McCafé stores.
McDonald’s in India
The term ‘mcdonaldization‘ describes
the current processes and trends of
globalization, especially considering fast
food markets. McDonald’s Corporation
represents an example how multinational
companies have learned to be globally
eficient with the response to the local
requirements, needs and limits as well.
This ongoing process, while considering
McDonald’s company, can be observed at
the geographic segment of south and East
Asia, where many different cultures and
religions meet on daily basis.
One of such examples is the state of
India, where irst McDonald’s restaurant
was opened in 1996 in Mumbai. All
Figure 1: Growth of McDonald’s customers in 1995 - 2008 in Slovakia
Source : www.mcdonalds.sk
172 Bielik et al, ATheory, Reality ...
the restaurants are situated in two
geographical locations: northeast and
southwest. Over 12 years of its existence
on Indian market, McDonald’s has
become a leader in food retailing service
in India with network of more than 132
restaurants in 2006. Up to date, there are
already more than 160 restaurants spread
over the country. In period of three years,
there is a plan to establish around 250 new
McDonald’s stores mainly in southwest
geographic location.
According the Indian website,
McDonald’s its situated in approximately
30 cities, and employs over 4000
people, serving more than 500 000
customers. Deeper analysis of customers’
composition in our research showed
that almost 85, 3% of McDonald’s
is represented by student aged 16-24
with higher education level (university,
college). This inding was supported by
panel discussion when students claimed
that many of McDonald’s restaurants are
situated in university cities as most of the
customers ind McDonald’s stores as one
of the cheapest option to eat out.
It also represents an example of
successful adaption to the needs of Indian
customers who are very price sensitive.
Sensitivity on price conirmed 37% of
Indian customers who reported the price
as the most important reason why to eat
at McDonald’s. 29% reported comfort
as the second most reasonable argument
to visit McDonald’s and 15% of Indians
choose McDonald’s due to its wide
product range.
Behind the success on Indian
markets stands as well sourcing of almost
all products from within the country
(almost 99%) and ability to local culture.
More than 80, 5% of inhabitants of
India are Hindus. Therefore they deny
consuming especially cow and pork meat.
In line with local culture, McDonald’s
in India has developed wide range of
vegetarian products. It also makes sure,
that vegetarian and non – vegetarian
products (Maharaja Mac, Fish –O –
Fillet, and Chicken Maharaja Mac) are
separated through the whole process of
preparation, cooking and serving.
M c D o n a l d ’s C o r p o r a t e S o c i a l
Responsibility
Over last few decades McDonald’s
belongs among MNCs that have
realized that success at any market is
not just about results. With constantly
growing restaurant chain worldwide,
strongly adapted company values, shared
commitment, effective communication
and continues innovation, McDonald’s
has power to create and achieve
considerable positive impact towards
sustainable development honoring triple
bottom line: planet, people, proit.
Guided by company values, strongly
implemented throughout the whole
company, McDonald’s focuses in terms
of CSR on ive key areas, presented on
Figure 2. Considering socially responsible
business activities, McDonald’s support
and strengthen its efforts by cooperation
with international organizations as
Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, Global
Food Safety Initiative.
In order to provide high quality
nutritious food, McDonald’s cooperate
with customers themselves (e.g. Mom’s
Quality Correspondents). McDonald’s
company has reached remarkably positive
results in all key areas mentioned above.
Considering areas of waste
management and use renewable resources,
we found out, that more than 29,2% of
packaging is made from recycled paper.
In Europe itself, the amount counts for
more than 88%. Outstanding results are
being achieved in area of saving energy.
By progressing instalation of new energy
saving toasters, McDonald’s saves more
than 28% of energy while preparing food
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 173
per restaurant.
Other successful program to be
mentioned is program launched by
McDonald’s in Europe. McDonald’s
Agricultural Assurance Program (MAAP)
which is designed to increase company’s
inluence through supply chain to the
primary producer level is one of the
program. Moreover, the framework of the
program is promoting food safety, quality
and sustainable agricultural production.
In order to strengthen the positive
impact of its CSR policy and activities,
McDonald’s uses wide selection of
communication tools such as internet sites,
POP (point of purchase) communication,
green logo and restaurants design
(combinations of green and yellow,
wood and stones), national as well as
international campaigns (‘Someday nature
will bite back’, Anti – littering day in UK,
Clean up Switzerland day, etc.).
Other step McDonald’s has taken
is presentation of results achieved in
CSR area through via inal reports as
CR Report or “Best of Green cookbook’
highlighting environmental best practice
innovations in a wide spectrum of areas
with tangible impacts for McDonald’s
business and brands.
On the other side, as our deeper
analysis showed, most of the positive
results are achieved mainly on 9 biggest
McDonald’s markets around the world
(Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, France,
Germany, UK, USA and Japan). In spite
of remarkable effort of McDonald’s to
create and preserve sustainable practices
in all of its business areas, uneven
spread of its CSR activities is negatively
relected in opinions of customers on
other McDonald’s markets, who do
not perceive McDonald’s as socially
responsible and trustworthy company at
full rate. Disability to create consistent
image of socially responsible corporation
on all McDonald’s markets weaken its
possibilities to progress and reached
positive results in CSR area worldwide as
well as to increase its impact on consumer.
Further research will show the
status of McDonald’s perception as CSR
Company from perspective of Slovak and
Indian customers, weaknesses in CSR
area on both markets as well as areas
McDonald’s should focus on in upcoming
future considering analyzed area.
Table 1
Results of McDonald’s in CR Key areas
Source: CR Report 2009, 2010, www.mcdonalds.com
Key area Activities Partial Results Achieved
Sustainable supply
chain
Animal Welfare Program
Environmental Scorecard (ES)
- No antibiotics while feeding
chickens : 60% of all farmers
- 100% suppliers processing plants
audited
Nutrition and well
– being Fruit and vegetable
- 100% restaurants (in/out)
providing nutrition information
- Items/per menu containing at least
one fruit or vegetable item – 6,9
Environmental
responsibility
Happy Meal and Happy Animals
campaign - 1 million € raised
Employees
experience
McDonald’s Hamburger
University
-96,2% of HU certificated managers
- 26,5% of women top managers
worldwide
Table 1
174 Bielik et al, ATheory, Reality ...
McDonald’s CSR: Slovak and Indian
market comparison
How McDonald’s succeeded in adapting
itself in CSR area considering Slovak and
Indian markets? In general, Slovak and
Indian customers perceive McDonald’s
mainly as one of the leading fast
food retailers worldwide. Majority of
customers (92, 7% Slovaks and 85%
Indian) associate the company mostly
with its core products (burgers and French
fries). Other the most often associations
where at Slovak markets obesity (63,
4%), whereas Indian costumers associate
McDonald’s as one that offers its product
for reasonable prices (34%). In this area
McDonald’s succeeded in adaption itself
on inancial situation of most Indian
consumers. None of the customers
associated the brand ‘McDonald’s’ as
socially responsible at irst place.
This was surprising fact as we
know; corporate social responsibility has
become essential for McDonald’s and the
company devotes every year effort, time
and investment to generate positive and
sustainable impact via on its markets,
considering stakeholders, community
and especially customers. Therefore,
the next step we took was to analyze
understanding of CSR by customers on
Slovak and Indian market.
Research focused on expectations
considering activities of socially
responsible company towards customers.
The survey showed that both Slovak
(38%) and Indian (34%) consumers
expect to include all aspects (ethical,
social, ecological, economical) providing
CSR activities, although there were some
respondents who had more speciied
preferences. For instance 30% of Slovak
customers would concentrate on social
and ecological aspect while doing
business and 34% of Indian customers
would focus more on ethical aspects
and behavior towards customers and
employees.
Figure 2. Key Areas of McDonald’s CSR
Source: McDonald’s CR report 2010, own research
Nutrition and well - being
Sustainable supply chain
Environmental responsibility
Employee experience
Community
McDonald’s CSR
Company values
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 175
As for relation of socially
responsible company to customers
expectations on both markets where more
homogenized. More the 34% of Indian
and 41% of Slovak customers admitted
SR companies should be oriented on
providing relevant information, safe and
healthy products, respect customer’s
privacy, etc. The same percentage of
Slovak and Indian customers (17%)
underlined the need of SR companies to
meet their need and requirements.
Based on indings above we asked
customers: If they perceive McDonald’s
as socially responsible corporation?”
According to the survey 31, 7% of Slovak
and 37% of Indian customers partially
agree with perception of McDonald’s as
socially responsible company. Almost the
same percentage of Slovaks (30%) with
such picture of McDonald does partially
disagree. The reason for this is mainly
that most of CSR activities conducted
on Slovak markets are sport and charity
events which do not correspond with
desirable activities in this area (only 2%
would consider it as main activity of CSR
Company on Slovak market).
On contrary, for 44% of Indian
customers, McDonald’s CSR policy and
activities represents especially offer of
healthy and balanced food. It is based
on a fact that McDonald’s succeeded in
adapting itself on Indian markets while
respecting multicultural and religious
environment with menu corresponding
to the needs of Indian consumers with
vegetarian menu.
The differences among Slovak and
Indian customers were demonstrated
especially in one area– nutrition and well
being – as one of the key areas included
in McDonald’s socially responsible
policy. Customers were given questions
considering quality of food menu, quality
and amount of product information
provided as well as information about
nutrition GDA (guideline daily amount
of nutrition). While 66% of Indian
customers admitted McDonald’s food to
be balanced and high quality, whereas
Slovak customers 85% are against. 67%
customers on Slovak market do not
consider McDonald’s to be a company
that helps them with achieving healthier
lifestyle, while on Indian market this
opinion shared only 31%.
More uniformed opinions of Slovak
and Indian customers were presented in area
of information quality. Approximately the
same percentage (38% on Slovak and
37% on Indian market) customers agreed,
McDonald’s does not provide them with
suficient amount of information about
its products. In case of Indian market
this result can be acceptable as there
are missing nutrition information on
packaging of products and website as
well. Opposed to that, Slovak customers
have many ways to gain relevant nutrition
information: on website, packaging
and lealets directly at McDonald’s
restaurants.
During our research, we were dealing
with the level of McDonald’s activities,
considering waste management, protection
of environment, level of inluence over
Slovak and Indian customer considering
ecological consumption (as part of SRC)
and opportunities McDonald’s create for
customers on both markets in order to enable
them participate on activities mention above
and raise their awareness about acting more
sustainably and responsible. While most of
Slovak consumers were clear about their
statements towards ecological activities
of McDonald’s, Indian consumers
showed to be unsure. An example is
demonstrated in following tables.
One of the best ways to support an
effort and activities and also positive image
in area of corporate social responsibility
companies in general should use the most
effective tools to communicate results
176 Bielik et al, ATheory, Reality ...
internet as a channel to communicate.
While dealing with communication,
McDonald’s can use one of the most
effective tools to increase and improve
CSR are called ‘voice of customer’. What
does ‘customer voice’ say on both markets
considering activities of McDonald’s?
Indian consumers would prefer
mainly if McDonald’s invest in education
of children, support their carrier growth,
create programs to protect them from
work in early age, support development
in local areas and villages not only cities.
As for communication they consider
interpersonal communication as the best
way to inluence consumer’s behavior.
In next step McDonald’s can educate
people on how to recycle and consume
responsibly, offer such examples as
achieved. As we mentioned, McDonald’s
uses many tools, but the question is their
effectiveness.
McDonald’s “Best of Green” report
contains the most innovative practices
how to build better and sustainable
business around the world. Mostly it is
presented on websites of the company
and available for everyone. In spite of this
almost 66% of Indian and 77% of Slovak
customers never read it. Our survey
showed that 70, 7% consumer would
prefer television advertisements, 43,
9% poster and lealets and only 26, 8 %
internet to demonstrate results achieved.
Television broadcast would
be preferred by 64, 6% of Slovaks,
followed by 34, 1% preferring billboards.
Surprisingly almost 68% would prefer
Support Protection of Environment ”
Disagree
Partially
disagree
No opinion Partially agree Agree
Slovak
market: 32% 22% 29% 11% 6%
Indian
market: 27% 34% 29% 10%
Source: own survey
T
”
able 3
Response s to The Question: McDonald’s Leads Me towards Ecological Consumption”.
Disagree
Partially
disagree
No opinion Partially agree Agree
Slovak
market: 52% 12% 22% 5% 6%
Indian
market: 27% 29% 27% 12% 5%
Source: own survey
Table 4
Responses to The Question : ”McDonald’s Educate People How to Protect Environment in
My Area.”
Disagree
Partially
disagree
No opinion Partially agree Agree
Slovak
market: 46% 24% 16% 7% 6%
Indian
market: 27% 29% 27% 10% 7%
Table 2
Responses to The Question ”By Buing McDonald’s products I have Opportunity to
Support Protection of Environment ”
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 177
additional value to products sold (energysaving light bulb), or increase visibility of
topic related advertisements via mascots,
etc.
As for Slovak markets, customers
would prefer higher level of inclusion in
McDonald’s CSR activities and projects,
collecting ideas and realizing project with
help of university student (supporting
them inancially), realization of more
visible campaigns, oriented on consumers
and non – consumers of McDonald’s and
all age categories (not only kids). In order
to improve healthy life style McDonald’s
could offer salad to chosen menu offer
for free or special coupons reducing
prices when choosing at least one fruit
or vegetable item in combination with
classic menu, etc.
CONCLUSION
One thing is clear: in spite of
enormous activity McDonald’s is
developing in area of CSR in order
to create and preserve sustainable
business practices and positive impact on
customers, business partners, community
and planet itself, there are still pitfalls it
must avoid in order to reach full impact on
all of its markets. The size of McDonald’s
markets, different preferences by
customers, various social, cultural and
political backgrounds are only few
reasons, why it has not yet succeeded
in creating its uniformed perception as
socially responsible company, increasing
its inluence on customer’s behavior
towards more responsible consumption.
The variety of markets does not
allow McDonald’s to use harmonized
marketing and CSR strategies as well. On
the other hand there are ways to improve
current situation: reduction of expansion
of McDonald’s restaurants chain, higher
investments to improve sustainable
business practices on existing markets,
increasing inluence and education via
interactive and modern media tools
(information panels about CSR results
and activities in restaurants, screens at
restaurants, and games with CSR topics),
support of green strategies and so on.
As research showed, there are
differences in perception of McDonald’s
as socially responsible company on Slovak
and Indian that has roots in variable values
and requirements, types of communication
used and scope of activities realized on
both markets. Important is that not all
effort lies on shoulders of the company
itself. Real effort and activity must
be taken on consumers’ side as well.
Current development of information and
communication technologies, new media
– social networks, market performance
primarily oriented on fulilling needs and
requirements of customers, voice of the
customer, knowledge available create
opportunities and access for customers to
participate actively towards sustainable
development of global society including
all its subjects. Only through cooperation
of both market sides (companies and
consumers primarily) long lasting and
maximized effect in area of corporate
social responsibility can be created.
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Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 179
CAPITAL MARKET TRADING BEHAVIOUR WITHIN CRISIS PERIOD
Bramantyo Djohanputro
Corporate Finance, Risk, and Governance
PPM School of Management
Jl Menteng Raya 9 Jakarta 10340
brm@ppm-manajemen.ac.id; bram.inance@gmail.com
Abstract
This paper aims at exploring the investors’ behavior on investment decisions,
especially on how they express their daily behavior in considering trading volume,
market returns, and market volatility in their trading or investment decisions within
the crisis period as the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States
of America. They are expected to employ current and past information contained in
trading volume, returns, and volatility, in their decision making under market pressure
because of crisis. To explore those relationships, regressions with Autoregressive
Conditional Heteroskedasticity, or ARCH, are employed. More speciically, TARCH
model is applied to explore the possibility of asymmetric response of negative and
positive information. The study reveals that traders are more concerned with volatility
than with return within the crisis period. Also, they tend to behave differently to
different types of information, i.e. negative and positive information.
Keywords: return, volatility, volume, TARCH, asymmetry
INTRODUCTION
Indonesian capital market is expected to
become more mature and eficient after
experiencing the economic crisis that hit
most Asian capital markets in 2009. Within
that period, most market indices went
down sharply, many investors retreated
from the market, and most short term
traders behaved carefully in very trading
decision. The maturity and eficiency
mean that traders tend to exploit various
data to extract information and to make
decision. Investors are quite conident to
the information contained in the trading
activities. They believe to be able to learn
and extract some material information
from those trading activities to make buy,
hold, sell, and portfolio decisions.
Trading volume represents trading
activities. Brown, Crocker, and Foester
(2009) argues that trading volume is
important because it relects some proxies,
including liquidity, momentum, and
information. Rompotis (2009) suggests
that trading volume is a determinant
factor, but not the sole factor, to inluence
market movements. Some studies
suggest that trading volume inluences
returns (Lamoureux, 1990; Chowdury,
and Howe, Ji-Chai-Lin, 1993; Andersen,
1996; Easly, Kiefer, Maureen, and Joseph,
1996; Hrazdil, 2009; Kymaz and Girard,
2009; Yen and Chen, 2010). Other studies
propose the inluence of trading volume
on both market returns and volatility
(Gerety and Mulherin, 1992; Lee, Mark,
and Paul, 1994; Sabri, 2004).
How does information inluence
market? Trading volume may indicate
the low of information, and the low of
information encourages price changes
180 Djohanputro, Capital Market ...
(Amihud and Mendelson, 1991;
Brailsford, 1994; Nawrocki, 1996). Note
that the information is diverse in quality,
depending on the ability of traders to treat
the data. Traders distinguish private from
public information. Private information
only belongs to certain persons who
have ability to evaluate data and certain
access to the sources of information.
Public information belongs to everybody.
Sometimes traders have different
conidence on those types of information
(Lin, Rahman, and Yung, 2010). In
addition, the magnitude of price change
depends on the quality of information
contained in the trading volume (Choi,
Hoyem, and Jung-Wook, 2009).
Trading activities may inluence
returns and volatility permanently or
temporarily. It is permanent if traders
are able to extract material information
that inluences the fundamental values of
stock listed in the market. It is temporary
is traders are only able to obtain news that
creates a shock in the market. The returns
or volatility movements under a shock
survive in a short period and they will
reverse as soon as traders realize their
mistakes. Therefore, the sustainability
of returns and volatility depends on
whether the trading activities have
fundamental information or merely relect
psychological shock. The existence of
fundamental information in the trading
activities will affect permanent volatility,
while psychological shock in the trading
activities will only inluence volatility
temporary. Girard and Omran (2009)
use the words expected and unexpected
components to express fundamental
information and news.
Based on the arguments aforementioned, it is interesting to explore the
investors’ behavior on investment decisions,
especially on how they express their daily
behavior in considering trading volume,
market returns, and market volatility in
their trading or investment decisions.
They are expected to employ current and
past information contained in trading
volume, returns, and volatility in their
decision making under market pressure
because of crisis.
This research, then, attempts to
answer the following questions. Firstly,
how and to what extent do investors use
the trading volume and past returns as
the sources of information on trading that
affect returns? Secondly, to what extent
do investors use trading volume and past
volatility as the sources of information
on trading that affect current volatility?
Thirdly, how do investors behave on
different types of information, i.e. positive
and negative information?
To answer those questions, this
research employs the data within a
crisis period, i.e. the data from January
to December 2009. This study employs
the following variables: trading volume,
market returns, market volatility, their
lags, and dummy variables. Trading
volume is represented by the natural
logarithm of trading volume. The use of
natural logarithm is to scale down their
values. Besides, the use of the natural
logarithm provides information regarding
the elasticity of returns and volatility on
the trading volume. Market daily returns
derive as the difference in the logarithms
of stock index levels. Volatility is
generated as the squared daily returns.
Dummy variables represent days of the
week effect.
This study indicates the return–
volume relationship as expected, while
volatility–volume relationship is not quite
clear. Apart from that, one may expect
that the market response is quick enough,
and quicker than under normal trading
period. By employing total, expected,
and unexpected trading volume, this
study gives a rich explanation on those
relationships.
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 181
This paper is organized as follows.
The irst section is introduction. The
following section describes the proposed
models and hypotheses. The next section
elaborates data employed in this study
and their analysis. This paper is closed
with the conclusion.
RESEARCH METHOD
The following models derive from
two main bases: the linear relationship
models of return – volume and volatility
– volume, and the asymmetric response
to different types of information. Assume
that transactions are conducted by both
informed and non-informed traders. An
informed trader has some choices. He
(she) may trade on one stock with large
volume, or many stocks with low volume
for each stock. He (she) may also transact
index or a stock portfolio. Depending
on the type of information, he (she)
will trade on a certain side, either buy
side or sell side. Even though his (her)
transaction for each stock is not large, his
(her) persistence in trading may cause the
trading volume increases signiicantly.
As informed traders are able
to predict the market movement, they
know the expected trading volume. Noninformed traders, however, do not know
exactly the volume they want to transact
until the time come. For this reason,
trading volume needs to be separated
between informed-based against noninformed-based trading volume, as shown
in the Equation 1.
Following Epps (1975), Copeland
(1977), and Campbell, Sandford,
Jiang (1993), Andersen (1996), Easly
et al (1996), and Kim and Karanasos
(2006), trading volume becomes one
of independent variables. The data of
trading relect underlying information
structure according to the trading
directions, either buying or sellingpressure conditions. Furthermore, a
joint dependence of return and volume
applies on an underlying latent event or
information variable. Traders may arrive
at the market sequentially and in a random
and anonymous fashion. This type of
information arrivals induces a dynamic
learning process of price discovery or
information assimilation phase. When all
agents agree on the price, the market goes
to the equilibrium direction characterized
by uniformed valuation and low buy-sell
spread.
ARCH is put as the variance
equation to accommodate the way traders
respond to information arrivals. More
speciically, Threshold Autoregressive
Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TARCH)
is applied to capture the possibility of
asymmetric response to different types
of information, i.e. negative and positive
types of information.
Return–Volume Relationships
Hypothesis 1: Past and current trading
volume, together with past market
returns, signiicantly inluence the current
market return, as shown in Equation 2
and Equation 3.
With I
t = 1 if Єt < 0 and 0 otherwise.
Return
t is the daily market return. It is
deined as the change in daily market
index, as shown in Equation 4.
182 Djohanputro, Capital Market ...
The closing daily indices are used
in this study. The reason is that closing
indices accommodate all lows of
information before and within the day.
Therefore the closing indices relect the
fair market prices. The daily returns do
not include dividend yield as the reasons
are the fact that this model of calculation
is common for daily returns and the
distribution of dividend is very rare, i.e.
normally only twice a year. Therefore,
excluding dividend yield does not
signiicantly inluence the time series of
return.
The use of the lags of return,
Return
t-i, is to extract the information
contained in the previous trading days.
Some investors, either informed or noise
traders, may ind certain information to
follow from the way prices moves. The
number of lag very much depends on the
speed of those traders obtain information
and their capability to bear risk in trading.
Volume as an independent variable
represents how traders behave in the market.
This model employs current trading volume
(Volumet) as an independent variable. The
reason is that transaction takes place before
the last, or closing, price is formed. This
means that Volume
t may contain information
useable to inluence the closing price. The
use of natural logarithm of trading volume
is to scale down the igure and to ind
information on sensitivity.
Variables D
k represent daily dummy
variables. Because there are ive trading
days within a week, this study employs
four daily dummy variables. These
variables are to extract the difference in
trading behavior and characteristics on
daily basis.
In addition, Equation 2 employs
TARCH model (Threshold Autoregressive
Conditional Heteroskedasticity). This
follows previous implementation
of ARCH and its variance process
(Bollerslev, 1986; Bierens ,1993; Kim
and Schmidt, 1993; Scwaiger, 1995,
Kim and Karanasos, 2006, and Faff and
McKenzie, 2007). The use of TARCH
process is to improve the eficiency of
the volatility in Equation 1. The use of
conditional variance, h2, is to make the
homoskedasticity variance. The use of
TARCH is to catch the asymmetric effect
of information on traders’ behavior on
negative and positive information. Such
effect is captured by by γt on Equation 2.
Under a crisis period, in which
selling pressure is stronger than buying
pressure, trading volume is expected to
inluence market return negatively. The
higher the trading volume, the lower
the market price, hence the lower is the
market return.
Volatility–Volume Relationship
Hypothesis 2: Current and past trading
volumes inluence current market
volatility. These hypothesis represent in
Equation 5 dan 6.
This study employs the squared
returns to represent the market volatility.
The use of past volatility in Equation 5 is
because traders may behave to previous
price luctuation before considering
trading. In this case, one expects bi’s are
signiicant. The length of the lags depends
on how fast traders react to the volatility.
The explanation of the remained
variables and the variance equation is
similar to the explanation in the previous
part.
Traders tend to watch the market
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 183
movement closely within a crisis period.
When the market is in rush, traders
jump to the market. The problem is
that some traders have various types of
information, while noise traders do not
have information at all. This last type of
traders makes market volatile because
the way they trade depends on which
informed traders are followed.
The above argument lead to the
hypothesis that trading volume positively
inluence market volatility. In other
words, the coeficients of trading volume
are expectedly to be signiicantly positive.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
This study employs data from the
beginning to the end of year 2009, the
year after the subprime mortgage crisis in
the US. The use of only one year period
is because the economy of Indonesia
started to rebound from the beginning of
year 2010. Most companies were very
optimistic that business was much better
in year 2010.
The Jakarta Composite Index and
trading volume data are taken from yahoo.
com. The index is applicable because they
are always adjusted to every corporate
action (as comparison, see Pinfold and
Qiu, 2007).However, the time series is
scrutinized line by line because there are
many missing data. As applied in many
studies, the missing index is illed with
index of its previous day. The missing
data of trading volume, on the other hand,
are replaced by zero.
Return – Trading Volume
Table 1 shows the results of three main
regressions. The difference among them
is the use of volume
t-i as an independent
variable. The irst regression, shown in
column 2, employs total trading volume.
The second regression, shown in column
3, employs expected trading volume.
The third regression, shown in column 4,
employs unexpected trading volume. The
results of TARCH models are shown at
the bottom part of the table.
Based on experience of using
data outside crisis period, those three
regressions employ a quite long lags of
return and volume as regressions. In
some cases, the use of lags 5, 10, and 20
is quite normal to capture the weekly,
bi-weekly, and monthly effects. Before
coming to those inal models, this study
has tried to implement longer lags for
both returns and volume. However, those
inal models are employed based on
maximum likelihood, Akaike information
criteria, and Schwarz criteria, besides the
fulillment of stationary and normality
requirements.
Regressions using the data within
the crisis period seem that the market
responds much more quickly. As Table 1
indicates, only trading from the last two
days inluences the current market return.
Table 1 column 2 shows that past return
and trading volume does not inluence
the current market return at all. There
is no single independent variable that
has signiicant coeficient, even at 10%
signiicance level.
The variance equation shown
in column 2 indicates the behavior of
asymmetric response to different types of
information. In relation to TARCH model,
the coeficient of Є
t-1
2I
t-1 is positive and
signiicantly different from zero at 10%
signiicance level.
The regression of return on the
expected trading volume, as shown in
column 3, indicates different responses
from those shown in column 2 and
conirms the importance of trading
volume. All coeficients of trading
volume, i.e. Volume
t, Volumet-1, and
Volume
t-2, are signiicantly different from
zero at 1% signiicant levels. This means
that current and past trading volumes very
184 Djohanputro, Capital Market ...
signiicantly inluence the current market
return.
The coeficients also tend to be as
expected, i.e. they tend to have negative
signs. They indicate the opposite relations
between market trading and return. The
increase in market trading activities
within crisis period indicates the selling
pressure. Therefore, the increase in
market volume tends to push the price
down or results in negative return. This is
shown by the coeficients of Volumet and
Volume
t-2.
The positive coeficient of Volumet-2
indicates that market prices tend to
luctuate within three days of trading.
Suppose that today’s trading volume
is high. This pushes the price down,
and results in the negative return today.
However, the price tends to rebound
or reverse the next day. This suggests
that traders are not sure about the price
movements as a result of yesterday’s
information contained in the trading
volume. Traders want to remove the
noise in the price. The third day, however,
traders still attempt to revise the price on
the basis of information contained in the
trading volume.
The last column of Table 1 shows
the result of regression using unexpected
trading volume as independent variables.
In terms of signiicance levels of all
variables, the regression results of column
4 and column 2 are the same, in the
sense that there is no single independent
variable that has a signiicant coeficient,
except the coeficient of variance equation
shown at the bottom of the table. This
result could indicate the dominance of
noise trading over informed trading within
the crisis period. Because of the small
portion of informed trading compared
to noise trading, the importance and the
signiicance of informed trading do not
signiicantly appear in the total effect.
The minority inluence of informed
trading is supported by the regression results,
especially in terms of R2. The low R2 of all
three regressions suggest that even though
informed trading signiicantly inluence
the price movement, there are other factors
that have signiicant inluence on the price
movements. If one could identify those
factors and accommodate them into the
models, the explanation power of the model
will go up.
The luctuation of returns signiicantly
in relation to trading volume within three days
indicates some important lessons learned.
First, crisis period, similar to the bearish
condition, tend to be dominated by selling
pressure. Under this situation, the increase
in trading volume means the increase
in stock to be sold. This is perceived as
negative information that brings the price
down. Second, traders tend to evaluate
the expectation of trading as the sources
of information to be accommodated
into price. Third, even though there is a
diversity of interpretation and existence
of sequential trading activity, the
interpretation of information tends to be
quick and informed traders tend to come
up with the converged information within
a short period, i.e. within two days.
Fourth, traders are not affected by noise
trading activities in evaluating the market
price.
Volatility–Trading Volume
Table 2 shows the results of three
regressions. Each regression contains
both main equation and variance equation.
Similar to the return-volume regressions,
the volatility-volume models also employ
three types of trading volume, i.e. total
trading volume, as shown in column
2, expected trading volume, shown
in column 3, and unexpected trading
volume, shown in column 4.
In terms of signiicance levels,
columns 2 and 4 indicate some signiicant
coeficients of independent variables.
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 185
However, column 3, mainly on the main
regression, indicates no single signiicant
coeficient. It is the opposite of the
results shown in Table 1, in which some
signiicant coeficients appear on column
(3) while no single signiicant coeficient
appears on columns (2) and (4).
Let focus on columns (2) and (4).
The signiicant coeficients of the lags of
volatility shown in column (2) are different
from those shown in column (4). In
column (2), the coeficient of yesterday’s
volatility, or lag 1, is signiicantly
different from zero at 10% signiicant
level. In column (4), the coeficients of
lags 3 and 4 are signiicantly different
from zero at 10% and 5% signiicant
levels, consecutively.
In terms of signiicant levels,
Dummy and Volumet variables have
similar characteristics between column
(2) and (4). The coeficient of DUM1,
or dummy for Monday, is different from
zero at 1% signiicant level. The positive
igure for this coeficient indicates that
the volatility of Monday tends to be
higher than the volatility of Friday. The
coeficient of DUM4, or dummy for
Thursday, is different from zero at 5%
signiicant level. The positive igure for
this coeficient indicates that the volatility
of Thursday tends to be higher than the
volatility of Friday.
The coeficients of Volume
t are
quite interesting. The coeficient of
Volume
t, or the current trading volume,
Table 1
The Regression of Return on Its Lags and Trading Volume
with TARCH Model for Variance Equation
186 Djohanputro, Capital Market ...
tends to be negative even though it is not
signiicantly different from zero. This
indicates that there is a tendency that the
increase in trading volume is followed
by lower volatility and the decrease in
trading volume is accompanied by the
increase in market volatility. On the next
day, however, the volatility signiicantly
increases as an impact of yesterday’s
increase in trading volume. The result
shown on column 4 indicates that the
similar directions of trading volume and
volatility still take place on the third day.
Another important lesson from
columns 2 and 4 is the concern of
the unexpected trading volume. The
coeficients of trading volume which are
signiicantly different from zero shown in
columns 2 and 4 are similar, i.e. Volume
t-1
and Volume
t-2. These may indicate that
the luctuations of total and unexpected
trading volume are strongly in line. If it
is true, the lesson is as follows. While
informed traders transact in an ordered
sequence, non informed traders transact
randomly and this behavior makes the
total trading move randomly. While
informed traders focus on the expected
trading volume and know the price
movements, non informed traders do not
know exactly the price movement and
cannot distinguish the informed trading
from non informed trading. As a result,
non informed trading tends to encourage
the higher volatility at the time of large
trading volume.
Independent Variable
(1)
Coefficient (Volumet =
Total Volume)
(2)
Coefficient (Volumet =
Expected Volume)
(3)
Coefficient Volumet =
Unexpected Volume)
(4)
Main Equation
C 0.002 -0.003 0.000
Volatilityt-1 0.166 * 0.115 0.147
Volatilityt-2 -0.066 0.016 -0.047
Volatilityt-3 0.072 0.050 0.083 *
Volatilityt-4 0.076 0.042 0.088 **
Volatilityt-5 -0.051 -0.017 -0.050
DUM1 0.000 *** 0.000 0.000 ***
DUM2 0.000 0.000 0.000
DUM3 0.000 0.000 0.000
DUM4 0.000 ** 0.000 0.000 **
Volumet -0.000 0.001 -0.000
Volumet-1 0.000 * -0.001 0.000 **
Volumet-2 -0.000 ** -0.001 0.000 **
Variance Equation
C 0.000 *** 0.000 ** 0.000 ***
Residt-12 0.113 ** 0.150 ** 0.106 **
Resirt-12 x [Residt-1 <0)] -0.524 *** 0.050 -0.497 ***
GARCHt-1 0.406 ** 0.600 *** 0.495 ***
Note:
- All coefficients are rounded to three decimals; as a result, some coefficients which are very smalls are
shown as 0.000, even though they are actually not zero.
- The sign of significance level: *** means significant at 1%; ** means significant at 5%; * means
significant at 10%.
Table 2
The Regression of Volatility on Its Lags and Trading Volume
with TARCH Model for Variance Equation
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 187
CONCLUSION AND FURTHER
RESEARCH
This study attempts to investigate the
relationships of market return and
volatility against trading volume within
a crisis period. The analysis focuses on
the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the
period of January 2009 to December
2009. It is expected that a crisis period
indicates speciic characteristics in terms
of return-volume and volatility-volume
relationships.
The study of return–volume
and volatility–volume employs
ARCH–autoregressive conditional
heteroskedasticity–and because there
is a possibility that variance inluences
the return and volatility behavior.
Considering that traders may behave
differently to positive and negative
information, the study employs TARCH–
thresholds autoregressive conditional
heteroskedasticity – to extract and to
accommodate that asymmetric behavior
on information. To assure the effect
of variance on return and volatility,
this study also uses conditional
variance as a regressor on the models
whenever statistically appropriate to be
implemented.
It is important to note at the irst
place that return behavior is signiicantly
affected by expected trading volume
while volatility behavior is signiicantly
affected by total and unexpected trading
volume. This implies that the luctuation
of total trading volume is in line with the
luctuation of unexpected trading volume.
In other words, the luctuation of trading is
mainly the result of non informed traders
jumping into the market to transact.
Second important point to note
is that market response to information
contained in the trading is much faster
than the market response in the normal
trading period. While the response and
the extraction of information exhaustively
needs only two or three days within a
crisis period, the response may take a
month within a normal period. It seems
that traders attempt to rush to the market
as soon as they ind new information.
Traders still exploit information on the
trading volume last week, last two weeks,
and last month. In this sense, market
sequential hypothesis does not really
work in the crisis period but it works
quite well in the normal period.
Third important lesson is that the
return-volume relationship within the
crisis period under study is as expected.
The increase in market trading activities
within crisis period indicates the selling
pressure. Therefore, the increase in
market volume tends to push the price
down or results in negative return. The
volatility-volume relationship, on the
other hand, is not as one expects, at
least there is a confusing relationship. It
is shown by the relationship within the
irst three days in which the relationship
luctuates, not in one direction, but in
mixed positive or negative relationships.
This is understandable because of the
dominance of unexpected traders that
inluence the market trading luctuation.
The last point is the fact that the
low powers of explanation of returnvolume as well as volatility-volume
indicate the importance of other variables
that inluence the return and volatility
movement. The market behavior, shown
by the signiicances of variance equations
of TARCH, is one factor, in which market
tends to behave differently to positive and
negative information. Other factors are
not identiied in these models and quite
interesting to be explored.
188 Djohanputro, Capital Market ...
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190 Sri Murtiasih et al, Technical Analysis ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN PREDICTING STOCK PRICES
MOVEMENT AND TESTING EFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS IN
INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE
Sri Murtiasih
Ferry Ferdian
Jurusan Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Gunadarma
Jalan margonda Raya No. 100 Depok 16424
murti@staff.gunadarma.ac.id
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the use of technical analysis in predicting stock price
movements in Indonesia Stock Exchange (ISE). The study also aimed to determine
the implications of technical analysis of the eficiency of information on the Stock
Exchange. The population in this study are listed companies on the Stock Exchange
from 2006-2010. The data used in this study is the stock price data during the observation period with the yield on the shares of proits (losses) of capital. Wilcoxon sign
rank test used to differentiate stock returns using technical analysis with a passive investment strategy. The results suggest that technical analysis is useful for predicting
stock price movements on the Stock Exchange in the future. Furthermore, this result
is an early indication that ISE is not weak form eficient market. In other words ISE
is an ineficient market based on information.
Key Words: technical analysis, eicient market hypothesis, stock price, Indonesian
Stock Exchange.
INTRODUCTION
Technical analysis is one out of two models which is generally used recently as the
basis of investment decisions for the majority of investors (Vanstone, Finnie, and
Tan, 2004). Technical analysis studies
the behavior of investors and are generally only focus on price and volume data
of the past to predict future price movements.
Technical analysis is popular both
in academics and practitioners. In their
research, Vanstone and Tan (2003) examined 30 studies related to the application
of artiicial intelligence in making investment decisions during the years 1989-
2002. Of the 30 studies, 23 of which examined the technical analysis. Popularity
of technical analysis among practitioners,
particularly on investment manager was
reviewed by Menkhoff (2010). Menkhoff
surveyed 692 fund managers over the
years 2003-2004 in ive (5) states, namely
the United States, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, and Thailand. The survey results
showed that the majority of investment
managers use technical analysis as shown
on Figure. 1.
The ability of technical analysis to
predict stock price movements in the fu-
0
50
100
Amerika
Serikat
Italia Jerman Swiss Thailand
. Figure 1 Menkhoff Survey Result
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 191
ture, has become a controversial subject
for a long time. Some researchers question the usefulness of technical analysis,
arguing that technical analysis can not
produce more proits than a passive investment strategy (buy and hold). Some
studies, for example, Fama and Blume
(1966) and Jensen and Benington (1970),
did not see the usefulness of technical
analysis. On the other hand, there is strong
evidence that simple forms of technical
analysis contain signiicant forecasting
power. At least the evidence was discovered by Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron
(1992), Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000),
and Wong, Du, and Chong (2005). Park
and Irwin (2007) reviewing 95 studies on
the ability of technical analysis in making
a proit, which was published during the
years 1988-2004. Of the 95 studies, 56
of which found positive results regarding
the ability of technical analysis.
Technical analysis based on the fact
that stock prices react slowly to new information coming in the market, and
therefore it is possible to obtain abnormal
returns by observing the trend of past
prices (Bodie, Kane, and Marcus, 1999)
. This method is contrary to the Eficient
Market Hypothesis (EMH) which states
that stock prices relect all available information.
In general, it can be said that any information that can be used to predict the
performance of the company will be relected in stock prices. As soon as there
is information indicating that stock prices
are too low or if there are proit opportunities, then the investor will be clustered
to buy stock and immediately push prices
to a reasonable level, where there is only
a normal return can be expected.
However, if the shares immediately
negotiable at reasonable prices, with all
the information available, the increase or
decrease was in response to new information. By deinition, new information
should not be predicted, because if it can
be predicted then the prediction is part of
the information today. As a result, stock
prices change in response to new information (which is unpredictable), is also
unpredictable.
This is a core argument that stock
prices will follow a random walk, namely
that price changes are random and unpredictable. If the stock price movements
can be predicted, there is evidence that
the market moves is ineficient, because
the ability to predict the price is an indication that all information provided has
not been relected in stock prices.
Eugene Fama (1970) distinguish the
EMH in three versions, namely weak,
semistrong, and strong. Weak form hypothesis states that stock prices relect all
information that can be derived by examining market trading data of past prices,
trading volume, and interest on the loan.
Semistrong form hypothesis states that
all publicly available information about
the prospects of a company should be relected in stock market prices. Finally, the
strong version of the form states that market prices relect all relevant information
for the company, including the information available to people within the company.
If the weak form eficient market
hypothesis is accepted, the use of technical analysis is useless because past price
already relected in current prices and no
evidence of movement in the future. Instead of technical analysis believe that
the price of the past can detect changes in
future prices. If technical analysis proved
beneicial and help investors gain greater
advantage of the market using only past
information, then the weak form eficient market hypothesis is not accepted
(Karampatsas and Blanas, 2010).
This phenomenon is of course interesting analysis on the ISE. The purpose
of this study therefore was to evaluate
192 Sri Murtiasih et al, Technical Analysis ...
the ability of technical analysis to predict
stock price movements in ISE in the future. The study also aimed to determine
whether ISE market is weak form eficient or not.
The ability of technical analysis to
predict stock price movements in the future is contrary to the weak form EMH.
Weak form EMH states that past price
information has been relected in current
prices and no evidence of movement in
the future. In the eficient market information, the best investment strategy is
passive investing (buy and hold).
If the stock returns in the form of
capital gains which is obtained by using
technical analysis can not afford more
than a passive investment strategy, means
that technical analysis is not able to predict the movement of stock prices in the
future. The implication is weak form eficient market because of past price information is relected in current prices.
Conversely, if the stock returns in the
form of capital gains is obtained by using technical analysis is capable exceed
passive investment strategy, means that
technical analysis is able to predict stock
price movements in the future. The implication is that market to be ineficient,
because of past price information has not
been relected in current prices.
RESEARCH METHODS
Data used in this study is secondary data,
ie. stock price data during the observation period (2006-2010), downloaded
from http://inance.yahoo.com. In the
study population is under the irm with
the characteristics listed on the ISE from
2006 until 2010.
Characteristics of the company that
is the subject of research are:
1. Companies listed on ISE in the period
2006-2010.
2. Continuously categorized into the list
of 50 stocks with largest market capitalization in ISE during the observation period. The number of stock market capitalization of the 50 largest cap
is ± 80% of the total market capitalization at the ISE, so it is supposed to
represent the entire stock in ISE.
3. Did not do a stock split or reverse
stock split during the observation period. The calculation of MA and proit
(loss) from capital using stock prices
of the stock split or reverse stock split
will be biased.
There are 425 companies listed on
ISE during 2006-2010. Among them only
31 companies continuously listed on top
50 stocks with biggest capitalization distributed on ISE during observation period. Finally only 25 companies did not
do stock split or reverse stock split during observation period. It means the study
was performed on 25 companies. Table 3
below shows listing of those 25 companies.
Research variable is return of shares
Table 1
Summaryof Park andIrwinStudy
Research
Number of Researches
Positive results Mix Negative results
Stock markets 26 12 10
Foreign Exchange
Market 24 6 8
Future Markets 6 1 2
Total 56 19 20
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 193
Table 2
Previous Research Summary
No. Researcher (year) Research object Finding
1. Fama dan Blume
(1966)
Dow Jones Industrial
Average
Technical trading rules are not able to produce
higher profit than passive investment strategy (buy
and hold).
2. Jensen dan Benington
(1970)
New York Stock
Exchange
Technical trading rules, averagely, are not able to
produce more profit significantly compare to
passive investment strategy.
3. Allen dan Taylor
(1990)
London foreign
exchange market
Currency produced using technical analysis of
forecasting is not different significantly with actual
currency
4. Neftci (1991) Dow Jones Industrial
Average
Technical analysis which is performed by Moving
Average (MA) method has significant forecasting
accuracy.
5. Brock, Lakonishok,
dan LeBaron (1992)
Dow Jones Industrial
Average
Technical trading rules are successfully
outperformed the market.
6. LeBaron (1999) London foreign
exchange market
Simple trading rules produce extraordinary profit
and become a challenge for EMH.
7.
Lo, Mamaysky, dan
Wang (2000) New York Stock
Exchange, NASDAQ
Stock Exchange
Certain technical patterns, when applied on a
number of stocks in long term period, will provide
addition information and show practical value,
especially on NASDAQ stock.
8. Wong, Manzur, dan
Chew (2003)
Singapore Stock
Exchange
MA and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are able to
be deployed to produce significant stock return in
Singapore Stock Market.
9. Wong, Du, dan Chong
(2005)
Shanghai Stock
Exchange, Hongkong
Stock Exchange,
Taiwan Stock
Exchange
MA works perfectly on SSE, HSE, dan TSE. It
indicates that three stock markets are not efficient.
10. Karampatsas dan
Blanas (2010)
Athens Stock
Exchange
Few of technical trade rules are able to produce
more stock return on FTSE-20 index, and MA
in form of proit (loss) from capital or
capital gain (loss). Capital gain is an advantage or proit from investments in securities such as stocks, bonds or in property, where the value exceeds the purchase
price (Sullivan and Sheffrin, 2002). In
contrast, capital loss occurs if securities
or property is sold at a price lower than
buying price. Calculation of stock returns
in this study was done using MetaStock
10.1 software to simulate trading.
The research hypothesis
Hypotheses to be tested are shown on Table 4
The analysis tools deployed are the
assumptions of parametric and compare
means paired samples tests. Testing the
assumptions of parametric consists of
testing the normality and homogeneity
assumptions. Test for normality using the
Shapiro-Wilk test in order to test the normality of the distribution of sample data.
Decision-making using the Shapiro-Wilk
test is based on signiicance value. Signiicance or probability value less than
0.05 indicates that the data are not normally distributed. In contrast, the signiicance or probability value greater than or
equal to 0.05 indicates that the data are
normally distributed.
Homogeneity test performed using
the Levene test. Decision making is still
based on signiicance value. Signiicance
or probability value less than 0.05 indicates that the data come from populations
having variances are not similar (not homogeneous). Signiicance or probability
value greater than or equal to 0.05 indicates that the data comes from populations that have similar variance (homogeneous).
Compare means for paired sample
can be performed using the paired t test
or Wilcoxon sign rank. Paired t test is
suitable to be used if the sample data distribution follows normal distribution and
data derived from populations that have
similar variance (homogeneous).
194 Sri Murtiasih et al, Technical Analysis ...
Conclusion is based on the signiicance
value. Signiicance value less than 0.05
indicates that two different samples originated from different populations. Signiicance value greater than or equal to 0.05
indicates that both samples come from
the same population.
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test is used
if the distribution of the sample data do
not follow a normal distribution or data
derived from populations having variances are not similar (not homogeneous).
Conclusion again is based on signifance
value. Signiicance value less than 0.05
implies that the two samples originated
from different population. In contrast, the
signiicance value greater than or equal to
0.05 implies that both samples come from
the same population.
For data processing purposes, it
used several tools. Microsoft Ofice Excel
was used to calculate initial stock price.
MetaStock version 10.1 was deployed to
simulate trading rules and passive investment strategy (buy and hold) as the part
of technical analysis. SPSS version 12.0
is used for processing data in a statistical
test.
Table 3
Listing of Research Sampel
No. Stock code Company’s name
1. AALI Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
2. ASII Astra International Tbk
3. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk
4. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk
5. BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk
6. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
7. BNGA Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk
8. BNII Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk
9. BNLI Bank Permata Tbk
10. BUMI Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk
11. EXCL XL Axiata Tbk
12. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk
13. HMSP HM Sampoerna Tbk
14. INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk
15. INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk
16. ISAT Indosat Tbk
17. KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk
18. LSIP PP London Sumatera Tbk
19. PNBN Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk
20. PTBA Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk
21. SMAR SMART Tbk
22. SMCB Holcim Indonesia Tbk
23. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
24. UNTR United Tractors Tbk
25. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk
Table 4.
Research Hypotheses and Description
Null hypothesis Alternative
Hypothesis
Description
: stock return using Simple Moving Average
(SMA)
: stock return using Exponential Moving
Average (EMA
: stock return using Dual Moving Average
(DMA)
: stock return using Dual Exponential
Moving Average (DEMA)
: stock return using passive investment (buy
and hold)
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 195
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
To provide more complete information
of stock progress to public, ISE publishes stock price data through print and
electronic media daily. Indicator of stock
price movement is the stock price index,
whereas Composite Stock Price Index
(CSPI) plays as the main index. Figure 3
shows the movement of stock index during the years 2006-2010
During the year 2006-2010 CSPI experienced signiicant growth of 218.72%,
although in 2008 a very drastic decrease
of 50.89% due to the global inancial crisis. This illustrates the increasing conidence of investors, both foreign and domestic, to the capital market in Indonesia.
Technical Analysis for Eficient Market
Hypothesis Test
Prior in deploying technical analysis,
stock return should be calculated. The
stock return is the result of stock trading
simulation using the optimal MA period
(provide the greatest return), which is different for each stock and the type of MA.
Trading was simulated using MetaStock
software version 10.1, in which the stock
price data in 2006-2010 was used as an
input. Figure. 4 shows an example of simulated data using SMA trading rules.
The simulation results using SMA
trading rules on stock AALI indicates the
period 50 as the greatest return. Return
stock at this period is 34.150 points for
Figure 3. Composite stock price index
movement during 2006-2010
5 years. In terms of percentage, the stock
return for 5 years amounted to 690%, or
137.98% per year. Table 5 presents the
optimal MA period of the entire stocks of
the sample in this study.
We may note that each stock has
different optimal period. This means that
each stock does not have the same price
movement. Each stock has its unique
price movement characteristics. MA period varies from 5 (the shortest) to 200
(the longest). These results are consistent
with Karampatsas and Blanas (2010) who
found that the proitability of MA depends
on the length of the period used.
Table 6 presents the overall return on
an annualized return of the study sample
year 2006-2010.
The simulation results for 25 stocks
trading in years 2006-2010 showed varying stock return. For Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. stock, the return per year are
at 137.98% using SMA, 134.14% with
EMA, 131.92% with DMA, 132.12%
with DEMA, 85.86% with buy and hold.
Largest return obtained by the Bukit
Asam Coal shares Tbk, over 200%,
with the SMA at 233.89%, amounting to
245% EMA, DMA at 228.33, 234.72% of
DEMA, and buy and hold is 235%. For
Indosat Tbk. shares, the return is comparatively very small, below 5%, amounting to 4.82% with SMA, EMA at 3.13%,
2.32% for DMA, DEMA at -1.79%, and
buy and hold at -0.71%. Table 7 below
shows the results of descriptive statistics
using the MA return stocks and buy and
hold strategy during the years 2006-2010.
During the years 2006-2010, the
lowest return obtained by the DEMA for
-1.79% of the shares of Indosat Tbk. The
highest return is the EMA of 245% of
the shares of Bukit Asam Coal Limited.
On average, buy and hold strategy produced the lowest return of 63.23%. While
the DMA produces the highest return of
83.75%.
196 Sri Murtiasih et al, Technical Analysis ...
Hypotheses Testing
Normality and Homogenity Tests
Normality test of stock return using Shapiro-Wilk test is shown on Table 8. All data
produced using the ive strategies are not
normal for 95% conidence. It means hypotheses testing should be performed using Wilcoxon signed rank test.
Homogeneity test was performed
using Levene test. Output produced is as
follows. Statistics, irst degree of freedom, second degree of freedom, and signiicany respectively are 0.812, 4, 120,
Figure 4. Trading simulation for AALI stocks using SMA trading rules
Table 5
MA Optimal Period
No. Stocks Code SMA EMA DMA DEMA
1. AALI 50 45 5/105 15/65
2. ASII 105 135 10/135 15/110
3. BBNI 80 155 15/175 15/140
4. BBRI 5 5 10/200 20/160
5. BDMN 165 35 10/165 15/165
6. BMRI 180 140 15/170 5/130
7. BNGA 20 45 10/60 10/55
8. BNII 15 50 5/125 10/100
9. BNLI 15 5 20/150 5/195
10. BUMI 15 15 10/80 10/50
11. EXCL 190 55 10/185 10/60
12. GGRM 75 200 10/95 20/60
13. HMSP 55 85 15/95 20/80
14. INDF 125 80 10/160 5/55
15. INTP 170 130 15/105 20/55
16. ISAT 5 120 15/195 20/180
17. KLBF 95 5 5/105 5/155
18. LSIP 5 5 5/90 5/105
19. PNBN 50 30 5/175 10/145
20. PTBA 165 200 10/70 15/170
21. SMAR 55 15 5/55 15/55
22. SMCB 155 185 5/155 20/105
23. TLKM 115 95 10/135 10/115
24. UNTR 180 130 20/120 20/115
25. UNVR 70 135 15/190 20/160
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 197
Table 6
Annulaized Stock Return Imbal Year 2006-2010 (in percentage)
No. Stocks Code SMA EMA DMA DEMA Buy & Hold
1. AALI 137,98 134,14 131,92 132,12 85,86
2. ASII 92,91 89,51 99,32 97,67 85,92
3. BBNI 56,48 52,81 51,56 53,05 40,55
4. BBRI 42,00 38,83 47,33 53,50 50,00
5. BDMN 13,51 14,76 22,20 21,57 3,87
6. BMRI 59,76 59,15 63,41 65,55 59,27
7. BNGA 68,64 76,79 80,74 82,22 74,32
8. BNII 105,60 79,60 102,40 91,87 84,00
9. BNLI 37,04 34,51 37,46 36,90 30,42
10. BUMI 198,68 188,82 190,13 194,61 59,61
11. EXCL 41,55 23,64 34,05 28,32 28,18
12. GGRM 58,43 54,42 67,22 61,04 49,57
13. HMSP 50,00 49,55 56,40 54,49 43,26
14. INDF 93,30 107,58 101,65 115,38 87,14
15. INTP 69,14 67,14 78,71 74,71 71,14
16. ISAT 4,82 3,13 2,32 -1,79 -0,71
17. KLBF 50,71 49,29 48,28 48,48 45,66
18. LSIP 129,75 138,32 90,76 86,05 66,39
19. PNBN 36,83 20,49 28,05 38,54 35,61
20. PTBA 233,89 245,00 228,33 234,72 235,00
21. SMAR 156,12 134,59 226,71 211,29 97,65
22. SMCB 96,42 80,63 97,89 96,84 74,74
23. TLKM 9,75 8,57 14,79 15,80 6,72
24. UNTR 109,93 109,39 136,60 127,35 109,52
25. UNVR 22,81 29,94 55,67 54,74 57,19
and 0.520. Based on signiicant value we
can conclude that data is homogeny for
0.01. Although homogeneity criteria is
veriied, compare means test of parametric test should not be performed as the
data is not normally distributed.
TPaired Compare Means
Wilcoxon Wilcoxon signed rank test for
compare two means among the strategies
is shown on Table 10 and Table 11. Based
on Table 10 it shows that stock return
with SMA exceed stock return with passive investment strategy (buy and hold)
on the 20 shares. Contrary stock return
with buy and hold strategy exceed SMA
for 5 shares. Stock return with EMA exceeds the stock return resulted using buy
and hold strategy for17 shares. Conversely, stock return with buy and hold startegy
exceeding EMA for 8 shares. Stock return
which was calculated with DMA exceeds
stock return which was calculated using
buy and hold on 21 shares. Conversely,
stock return with buy and hold strategy
exceeding DMA strategy for 4 shares.
Finally, stock return which was calculated with DEMA exceeding buy and hold
strategy for 22 shares. Conversely, stock
return with buy and hold strategy exceeding DEMA strategy for 3 shares. Overall
MA strategy managed to outperform the
buy and hold strategy in terms of proitability, with DEMA be best compared to
the SMA, EMA, and DMA.
Based on Table 11 we can conclude that all null hypotheses are rejected. It means the acceptance of alternative
hypotheses. Statistically we can state that
stock return calculated with SMA, EMA,
DMA, and DEMA exceeds buy and hold
strategy signiicantly at 5%. The result
proves that technical analysis (which is
represented by MA trading rules) is useful in predicting future stock price in
ISE. Further, this result indicates that ISE
198 Sri Murtiasih et al, Technical Analysis ...
Based on the analysis and discussion in
the previous chapter, the conclusions obtained are as follows:
1. The return using Moving Average
trading rules is proven exceeds
passive investment strategy (buy
and hold). This means that technical
2. analysis is useful for predicting
stock price movements in Indonesia Stock Exchange in the future.
3. Ability of technical analysis to
predict stock price movements in
Indonesia Stock Exchange in the
future, be an early indication that
the ISE is not weak form eficient
market. In other words ISE is an
ineficient market information.
Suggestion
Some further research can be done. The
data used in this study came from only one
market share in certain periods. However,
further research can be done with data on
is not eficient market weak form. ISE
should be categorized as ineficient market informationally.
These results prove that the stock
price movements can be predicted using
technical analysis. However the study result contradicts with the Eficient Market
Hypothesis (EMH) which was irst proposed by Fama (1970). On EMH it states
that stock prices will follow a random
walk and can not be predicted because the
stock price movements relect changes in
the information available in the market.
The results of this study can be
taken into consideration for investors
to use technical analysis in investment
decision-making in the capital markets,
especially equity investment in Indonesia
Stock Exchange.
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
Conclusion
Table 7
Stock Return Statistics Year 2006-2010
(in percentage )
Minimum Maximum Average
Standard
Deviation
SMA 4,82 233,89 79,04 57,69
EMA 3,13 245,00 75,62 58,36
DMA 2,32 228,33 83,75 60,45
DEMA -1,79 234,72 83,00 59,81
Buy & Hold -0,71 235,00 63,23 45,97
Table 8
Normality Test Result
Strategy Statistics df Sig. Decision
SMA 0.913 25 0.035 not normal
EMA 0.903 25 0.021 not normal
DMA 0.889 25 0.011 not normal
DEMA 0.896 25 0.015 not normal
Buy & Hold 0.820 25 0.001 not normal
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 199
more than one market share for various
periods. Moreever, further research can
also be done using other trading rules,
because these studies only use indicators
moving average (MA). Other researches
can consider using transaction cost in the
calculation of the return.
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Allen, H. and Taylor, M. 1990 “Charts,
noise and fundamentals in the london foreign exchange market” The
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Bodie, Z., Kane, A. and Marcus, A. J. 1999
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eficiency of the BRIC countries”
Journal of Technology and InvestTable 10
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Result
Sign Frequency Average Total
Buy & Hold<SMA + 20 13.65 273.00
Buy & Hold>SMA - 5 10.40 52.00
Buy & Hold=SMA Equal 0
Buy & Hold<EMA + 17 13.88 236.00
Buy & Hold>EMA - 8 11.13 89.00
Buy & Hold=EMA Equal 0
Buy & Hold<DMA + 21 14.43 303.00
Buy & Hold>DMA - 4 5.50 22.00
Buy & Hold=DMA Equal 0
Buy & Hold<DEMA + 22 14.36 316.00
Buy & Hold>DEMA - 3 3.00 9.00
Buy & Hold=DEMA Equal 0
Table 11
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Hypothesis Test Result
Z Sig. Decison
Buy & Hold – SMA -2.973 0.003 Reject H0
Buy & Hold – EMA -1.978 0.048 Reject H0
Buy & Hold – DMA -3.780 0.000 Reject H0
Buy & Hold – DEMA -4.130 0.000 Reject H0
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Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 201
RESIDENCES SATISFACTION TOWARDS SERVICE
QUALITY PROVIDED BY BOGOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Adi Kuswanto1
Teddy Oswari2
Budi Setiawan3
1,2 Faculty of Economics, Universitas of Gunadarma
3 Faculty of Information System, Universitas of Gunadarma
1(kuswanto@staff.gunadarma.ac.id)
3(buset@staff.gunadarma.ac.id)
2(toswari@staff.gunadarma.ac.id)
Abstract
The lowest local government as a frontline government has some crucial duties includes residences administration, village development, residences identity, land administration, and other duties. Up to present, the performance of the lowest local
government is measured based on the regulation, but has never been measured based
on the perception of its residences that have had service directly. The objective of the
study are(1) to explore whether there is a differences between the perception and the
expectation of the residences towards the service quality provided by the lowest local
government; (2) to analyze the effect of service quality of the lowest local government on the satisfaction of the residences. The sampling method used in the research
is stratiied random sampling and collect 681 residences that have ever dealt with the
lowest local government. The service quality was measured by comparing expectation and perception in which using six dimensions namely tangiable variable, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, and competence. The result of the study
shows that the perception of residences on service quality is lower than their expectation. The service quality that affects on the residences satisfaction is tangiable, reliability, responsiveness, and competence variables. Assurance and empathy variables
did not affect residences satisfaction.
Keyword: Service, quality, government, satisfaction, residences
INTRODUCTION
The development of information technology
has contributed beneits to the performance
of many organizational activities both private
and government organizations. Information
technology has been used widely in all human life to do activities more effective and
eficient. Companies apply it to increase their
competitiveness. Government bodies apply
it to increase the service quality to the residences including service of private business
and required information.
In globalization, the need for information keeps increasing for public. Investors require the information of inancial statements
and business prospect in the future. The government bodies require information to expose the operation and inancial of the private
companies for taxation. The government also
publishes reports to stakeholders on operation and inancial activities during the year.
Mostly central government bodies have
beneited from applying the information
technology. Nevertheles, the middle and the
lowest local government such as towns, sub-
202 Hotniar et al, Consumer Trust...
district, and village government have not applied the information technology optimally.
Region that has successfully applied
the information technology on stop service
is Sragen. The region serves residences such
as business permission certiication, birth
certiication, and other business at one stop
service within ixed price and certain time.
Mostly central and local service governments have not determined the price
of each service and the certainty of service
duration. They price the services differently. It means that the service mechanism
is not based on market mechanism. This
will lead to unfavourable situation to public served. Government staff perhaps will
set up the cost as high as possible considering residence will pay any price as they
need the services. However, residences are
customers whose need to be satisied. Residence satisfaction then has similar concept as
general customer satisfaction which is generally deined as an evaluative response to the
perceived outcome of a particular consumption experience (Cadotte,Woodruff, and Jenkins, 1987; Day, 1984;Westbrook and Oliver,
1981, 1991;Yi, 1990).
Government should provide better and
prompt services. Staffs performances should
be measured and evaluate continuously. Public services should be view as marketingoriented. Many researches have been done
in measuring customer satisfaction such as
(Bielen and Demoulin, 2007; Olorunniwo,
Hsu, and Udo, 2006; Law, Hui, and Zhao,
2004; Antonides, Verhoef, and Van Aalst,
2002; Homburg and Giering, 2001; Cronin,
Brady, and Hult, 2000; Dabholkar, Sheperd,
and Thorpe, 2000; Cronin and Taylor, 1992;
Dabholkar, 1995), but the study is still rare
on public services.
Moreover, based on government policy
which is “residences satisfaction continuously”, residences satisfaction measurement is a
must. Measurement output subsequently will
be useful in improving services.
Therefor the objective of the study are
(1) to explore whether there is a difference
between the perception and the expectation
of the residences towards the service quality
provided by the lowest local government; (2)
to analyze the effect of service quality of the
lowest local government on the satisfaction
of the residences.
RESEARCH METHOD.
The population of the study is all residences
at Bogor City who have ever engaged deals
with the village government. Bogor city is
small city located near to Jakarta. The activities linked between reseidences and public
staffs include application of identity card,
the payment of land and building tax, house
certiicate, meeting invitation, village head
election, etc. Bogor city has 6 subdistricts as
shown on Table 1.
Bogor population is about 949,066
which consists of 484,648 males and 464,418
females. Considering big number of population which will take big efforts and time
consuming subsequently, sampling should be
deployed. Sampling method used in the study
is cluster random sampling. Total number of
sample is 720 who are distributed in 6 subdistricts. For each district, 120 questionnaires
were distributed. It means samples from each
district are 120. Among village residences,
120 respondents were recruited randomly.
Satisfaction is a latent variable which
is measured based on customer perception and expectation towards service quality (Boul-ding, Staelin, Kalra, and Zeithaml,
1993; Churchill and Surprenant, 1982; Oliver, 1980; Oliver and DeSarbo, 1988; Westbrook and Oliver, 1991). Questionnaire
development was done based on Parasuraman, Zeithaml, and Berry (1988). Based on
it, service quality dimensions are tangible,
reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, and competence. Tangible dimension is
deined as physical facilities, tools, and the
performance of the personnel. Reliability is
deined as the ability to provide promised service accurately and reliably. Responsiveness
is deined as desire to help customers to provide service timely. Assurance is knowledges
and courtesy of public staff’s personnel and
their ability to increase respect to customers.
Empathy is deined as payment attention individually by the personnel of public staff to
customers. Competence includes aptitudes
and abilities. Aptitudes is ability to learn
something and abilities is capacity owned by
someone to do many duties successfully.
Prior to questionnaire distribution, va-
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 203
lidity and reliability tests were performed.
Validity refers to the extent to which a test
measures what we actually wish to measure.
Reliability is concerned with estimates of
the degree to which a measurement is free
of random or unstable error. Validity test
was performed using correlation technique.
Realiability test was performed using Alpha
Cronbach.
In order to measure residence satisfaction, data collected further was analyzed
using statistics method. In measuring residence perception and expectation gap, compare means was deployed. Furtherly multiple regression was deployed to explore the
effect of tangibles, reliability, responsiveness,
assurance, empathy and competence on residences satisfaction.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION.
Questionnaire was distributed to six subdistricts in Bogor City. From 720 questionnaires
distributed, 681 were returned back. The
composition of questionnaire distribution
among six districts along with returned back
and valid questionnaire are shown on Table
The results of the study begin with exploring the respondent characteristics. Based
on sex, from 681 valid questionnaires, 340
are females and 341 are males. The composition is almost similar. From the point of view
of age, the youngest is on 12-18 range and
the oldest is on 75-81 range. The biggest respondents are laid on 19-25 years old range
whereas the least is on 68-74 years old. More
detail about respondent age is shown on Table 3.
Based on respondent education, the biggest percentage is included on Senior High
School level and the least is doctoral degree.
More complete on respondent educations are
shown on Table 4. Most of respondent job is
private oficer as shown on Table 5. However, respondent job varies from state oficer
which is also public staff until students.
Based on services provided, the most
widely is applying identity card and the least is
consultation. More detail should be refereed to
Table 6.
Compare Means between Perception and
Expectation of Service Quality
Most commonly, customer complaint towards
services they get. Similar evidence happened
with public services. Considering public services are monopolies, there is tendency that
public staffs are not performed as expected.
It is not surprisingly then to accept complaint
from residence. To evaluate this evidence in
Bogor public services, compare means with
paired samples t test was performed to evaluate the gap between perception and expectation. Table 8 shows mean, standard deviation, and standard error for each pair.
Table 1.
Subdistricts and Villages
Subdistrict Villages
asa.
k,
Subdistrict Villages
Bogor Utara Bantar Jati, Tegalgundil, Cibuluh, Kedung Halang, Tanah Baru,
Cimahpar, Ciluar, Ciparigi
Bogor Selatan Rangga Mekar, Bojong Kerta, Kertamaya, Rancamaya, Harjasari,
Muarasari, Mulyaharja, Bondongan, Empang, Lawanggintung, Batutulis,
Cikaret, Cipaku, Pakuan, Pamoyanan, Genteng
Bogor Timur Baranangsiang, Sukasari, Tajur, Katulampa, Sindang Sari, Sindang Rasa.
Bogor Barat Menteng, Pasir Kuda, Pasir Jaya, Pasirmulya, Gunung Batu, Bubulak,
Situgede, Margajaya, Balumbang Jaya, Semplak, Cilendek Timur,
Cilendek Barat, Curug, Loji, Curug Mekar, Sindang Barang
Bogor Tengah Pabaton, Tegallega, Sempur, Babakan Pasar, Panaragan, Cibogor,
Babakan, Paledang, Ciwaringin, Gudang, Kebon Kelapa
Tanah Sareal Tanah Sareal, Kebon Pedes, Kedung Badak, Kedung Jaya, Kedung
Waringin, Sukadamai, Sukaresmi, Cibadak, Kencana, Mekarwangi,
Kayumanis
204 Kuswanto et al, Residences Satisfaction ...
Closer look on Table 9, we can conclude that there is a different between perception and expectation signiicantly for all
dimensions. Signiicance values for all pairs
are lower than 0.01. It means there is a very
strong gap between perception and expectation. Mean values is negative which shows
that the expectation is much more higher than
perception. It’s not surprisingly as citizens in
all nations always expect creation and delivery of high quality services from their respective governments.
In respect with this, local government
needs to improve the services in all aspects.
Facilities such as waiting room, ofice, physical performance of staffs should be improved.
Providing services accurately and timely
should be performed. Staffs should be trained
to respect residences who need services and
motivate their desire to help them.
Furthermore satisfaction model based
on service quality dimensions was tested.
Table 10 shows the result. Based on Table 10
we may conclude that the model is it. Residences’ satisfaction towards public services
in Bogor city can be measured using tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance,
empathy, and competence dimensions. This
result enriches the study on service quality
measurement. Those dimensions have been
applied in various type of services (such as
Churchill and Surprenant 1982; Swan and
Trawick 1981; Tse and Wilton 1988; Westbrook 1980, Johnston, 1997; Yang and Fang,
2004; Wirtz and Mattila 2000).
Table 10 shows that coeficient determination value (R Squared) is 0,935. It indicates
that the level satisfaction of residences can
be explained by variable of tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, and
competence at value of 95,3 percent.
F test (Anova) has signiicant value of
0.00 below 0.05. It indicates that the regression model can be used to predict the level
Respondent Description Based on Age
Table 3
Interval class Frequencies Percentage
12- 18 62 9
19 - 25 200 30
26 - 32 149 22
33 - 39 87 13
40 - 46 85 13
47 - 53 54 8
54 - 60 27 4
61 - 67 5 1
68 - 74 2 0
75 - 81 3 0
674
Description Subdistrict Total
Bogor
Selatan
Bogor
Barat
Bogor
Tengah
Bogor
Timur
Bogor
Utara
Tanah
Sareal
The amount of
questionnaires sent
120 120 120 120 120 120 720
Unreturned
qestionnaires
4 11 0 8 0 0 23
Incomplete
qestionnaires
0 4 12 0 0 0 16
Amount of samples 116 105 108 112 120 120 681
Table 2.
Questionnaire Distribution and Valid Questionnaire Returned Back
Description Subdistrict Total
or or or or or ah
of 0 0
s 5 2
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 205
Respondent Description Based on Level of Education
Table 4.
Level of education Frequencies Percentage
Elementary school 27 4
Junior high school 47 7
Senior high school 345 51
Diploma 10 1
Undergraduate 137 20
Postgraduate 114 17
Doctoral 1 0
681
Respondent Description Based on Occupation
Table 5.
Occupation Frequencies Percentage
State officer 73 11
Entrepreneur 97 14
Private officer 183 27
Labor 21 3
Housewife 58 9
Teacher 12 2
Student 165 24
Other 71 10
680
Table 6.
Frequency of Interaction with Public Services
Deals Frequencies Percentage
Applying identity card 348 51
Tax 23 3
House certificate 18 3
Land certificate 14 2
House/land trade certificate 4 1
Meeting invitation 4 1
Consultation 3 0
Others 45 7
Applying identity card and tax 135 20
Applying identity card and Meeting invitation 15 2
Applying identity card and others 3 0
More than 2 deals 69 10
681
206 Kuswanto et al, Residences Satisfaction ...
satisfaction of residences. Based on t test, the
independent variables which have signiicant
value less than 0.05 are tangiable, reliability,
responsiveness, and competence. It indicates
that each of those variables have effect signiicantly on the level satisfaction of residences.Variables which have signiicant value
greater than 0.05 are assurance and empathy.
It indicates that each of those variables have
not effect signiicantly on the level satisfaction of residences.
The results of multiple regression show
that the residences of Bogor City are satisied with physical performance of village
governments. The physical performance is in
the form of near village location and easily
reached by residences, safe and comfortable
park area, modern building, clean village ofice, and attractive village oficers.
The residences satisfaction is explained
by realibility in the form of energic and quick
village oficers to serve residences, their
helps to residences. It is also explained by
responsiveness in the form of easily to make
promise with village oficers and their commitment to keep it, their paying attention
about complaint of residences, and their detailed explanation about illing up the form
and services cost.
Lastly, the competence variable affects
Table 8.
Paired Samples Statistics for Service Quality
Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Pair 1 P_Tangiable 4.5944 681 .75192 .02881
H_Tangiable 5.3298 681 .86985 .03333
Pair 1 P_Reliability 4.5560 681 .72276 .02770
H_Reliability 4.6628 681 .81488 .03123
Pair 1 P_Responsiveness 4.7003 681 .81539 .03125
H_Responsiveness 5.5261 681 .90594 .03472
Pair 1 P_Assurance 4.5455 681 .87287 .03345
H_Assurance 5.5918 681 .98519 .03775
Pair 1 P_Empathy 4.7394 681 .84800 .03250
H_Empathy 5.5015 681 .93894 .03598
Pair 1 P_Competence 4.6520 681 .79042 .03029
H_Competence 5.5103 681 .89035 .03412
Table 9.
Paired Samples Test for Service Quality
Paired Differences
t df
Sig.
(2-
Mean tailed)
Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower Upper
Pair 1 P_Tangiable -
H_Tangiable -.73539 .87795 .03364 -.80145 -.66933 -21.859 680 .000
Pair 1 P_Reliability -
H_Reliability -.10671 .83629 .03205 -.16963 -.04378 -3.330 680 .001
Pair 1 P_Responsiveness -
H_Responsiveness -.82575 .95758 .03669 -.89779 -.75370 -22.503 680 .000
Pair 1 P_Assurance -
H_Assurance -1.04626 1.15191 .04414 -1.13293 -.95959 -23.702 680 .000
Pair 1 P_Empathy - H_Empathy -.76211 1.01711 .03898 -.83864 -.68559 -19.554 680 .000
Pair 1 P_Competence -
H_Competence -.85835 .99072 .03796 -.93289 -.78380 -22.609 680 .000
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 3 Desember 2011 207
on the level of residences satisfaction in the
form of good knowledges and skillful of village oficers to serve residences, their capability to serve variety of services, and the
accurate information provided by village oficers.
Assurance and emphaty variables do not
affects on the level of residences satisfaction.
It is caused by uncertainty of service cost,
unstandard and unstable services, and uncertainty about duration of deals settlement.
CONCLUSSION
The study is about service quality of the lowest local government at Bogor City and the
level of residences satisfaction. The conclusion taken from the results and discussion
above that service quality provided by village
government at Bogor city is lower than exTable 10.
Results of Multiple Regression
Model Summaryb
Model R R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 .967a .935 .934 1.17862
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tangiable, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy,
and competence
b. Dependent Variable: residences satisfaction
ANOVAb
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 13348.008 11 1213.455 873.533 .000a
Residual 929.331 669 1.389
Total 14277.339 680
Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) -2.674 .420 -6.361 .000
Tangiable .428 .104 .070 4.103 .000
Reliability .422 .085 .067 4.975 .000
Responsiveness .172 .093 .031 1.862 .063
Assurance .050 .073 .009 .677 .498
Empathy -.052 .084 -.010 -.624 .533
Competence .517 .095 .089 5.448 .000
pected by the residences. The service quality
can be in the form of tangiable, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy), and competence. The residences satisfaction is affected by tangiable, reliability, responsiveness,
and competence. The residences satisfaction
is not affected by assurance and empathy.
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Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 2 Agustus 2011 147
AUTHOR GUIDELINES
Article structure
• Title page
• Abstract and key words
• Background
• Research Method
• Result & Discussion
• Conclusion and Suggestion
General guidance
• Use American English
• Use page layout with margin 3 cm, A4
• 12 -16 pages length
• Single space, single column, TNR 12 pt.
Essential title page information
• Provide in separate page.
• Title. Concise and informative. Titles are often used in information-retrieval systems. Avoid abbreviations and formulae where possible.
• Author names and afiliations. Where the family name may be ambiguous (e.g.,
a double name), please indicate this clearly. Present the authors’ afiliation addresses (where the actual work was done) below the names. Indicate all afiliations with a lower-case superscript letter immediately after the author’s name
and in front of the appropriate address. Provide the full postal address of each
afiliation, including the country name, and, if available, the e-mail address of
each author.
• Corresponding author. Clearly indicate who will handle correspondence at all
stages of refereeing and publication, also post-publication. Ensure to provide the
e-mail address and the complete postal address. Contact details must be kept
up to date by the corresponding author.
• Present/permanent address. If an author has moved since the work described in
the article was done, or was visiting at the time, a “Present address” (or “Permanent address”) may be indicated as a footnote to that author’s name. The address
at which the author actually did the work must be retained as the main, afiliation
address. Superscript Arabic numerals are used for such footnotes.
148 Bahar, Optimasi Biaya Sistem ...
Abstract & Key Words
A concise and factual abstract is required. The abstract should state briely the purpose
of the research, the principal results and major conclusions. An abstract is often presented separately from the article, so it must be able to stand alone. For this reason,
References should be avoided, but if essential, then cite the author(s) and year(s). Also,
non-standard or uncommon abbreviations should be avoided, but if essential they must
be deined at their irst mention in the abstract itself.
Immediately after the abstract, please provide 3 until 5 keywords, using American
spelling and avoiding general and plural terms and multiple concepts (avoid, for example, “and”, “of”). Be sparing with abbreviations: only abbreviations irmly established in the ield may be eligible. These keywords will be used for indexing purposes.
Abbreviations
Deine abbreviations that are not standard in this ield at their irst mention. Ensure
consistency of abbreviations throughout the article.
Acknowledgements
Collate acknowledgements in a separate section at the end of the article before the
references and do not, therefore, include them on the title page, as a footnote to the
title or otherwise. List here those individuals who provided help during the research
(e.g., providing language help, writing assistance or proof reading the article, etc.).
Units
Follow internationally accepted rules and conventions: use the international system
of units (SI). If other units are mentioned, please give their equivalent in SI.
Math formulae
Present simple formulae in the line of normal text where possible and use MS Equation to construct the formulae. Use the solidus (/) instead of a horizontal line for small
fractional terms, e.g., X/Y. In principle, variables are to be presented in italics. Powers
of e are often more conveniently denoted by exp. Number consecutively any equations
that have to be displayed separately from the text (if referred to explicitly in the text).
Footnotes
Footnotes should be avoided. In the case that it is very important, used sparingly. Number them consecutively throughout the article, using superscript Arabic numbers. Many
wordprocessors build footnotes into the text, and this feature may be used. Should this not
be the case, indicate the position of footnotes in the text and present the footnotes themselves separately at the end of the article. Do not include footnotes in the Reference list.
Color artwork
Please make sure that artwork iles are in an acceptable format (TIFF, EPS or MS Ofice iles) and with the correct resolution. If, together with your accepted article, you
submit usable color igures then we will ensure, at no additional charge, that these
igures will appear in black and white in the printed version. For color reproduction
in print, you will receive information regarding the costs from us after receipt of
your accepted article. Please indicate your preference for color in print.
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 2 Agustus 2011 149
Please note: Because of technical complications which can arise by converting color
igures to “gray scale” (for the printed version should you not opt for color in print)
please submit in addition usable black and white versions of all the color illustrations
Figure captions
Ensure that each illustration has a caption. Supply captions separately, not attached to
the igure. A caption should comprise a brief title (not on the igure itself) and a description of the illustration. Keep text in the illustrations themselves to a minimum but
explain all symbols and abbreviations used.
Tables
Number tables consecutively in accordance with their appearance in the text. Place
footnotes to tables below the table body and indicate them with superscript lowercase letters. Avoid vertical rules. Be sparing in the use of tables and ensure that the
data presented in tables do not duplicate results described elsewhere in the article
Subdivision
Divide your article into clearly deined sections or subsections but no need to be numbered. Sections are marked with full capital and subsections are marked with capitalized irst letter for each word, underline and bold.
Appendices
Keep appendices to minimum. If there is more than one appendix, they should
be identiied as A, B, etc. Formulae and equations in appendices should be given separate numbering: Eq. (A.1), Eq. (A.2), etc.; in a subsequent appendix,
Eq. (B.1) and so on. Similarly for tables and igures: Table A.1; Fig. A.1, etc.
References
This style of referencing requires that you acknowledge the source of your information
or ideas in two ways:
• in the text of your work, when you refer to ideas or information you have
collected during your research. Each reference is indicated by including the
author and date of the publication referred to, or cited.
• in a reference list at the end of your text, which gives the full details of the
works you have referred to, or cited.
In text referencing
You may acknowledge the source of your information or ideas within the text of your
work in various ways.
Quotation
You may quote the author’s exact words to support your argument.
Author’s original text
Biological time is not only scientiically important, but it also greatly affects the productivity and health of a nation. The cost to the nation’s health of working out of phase
150 Bahar, Optimasi Biaya Sistem ...
with our biological clocks is probably incalculable at present. In the short term, poor
sleep, gastrointestinal problems, higher accident rate, and social problems are evident.
Rajaratnam, S 2001, ‘Health in a 24-hr society’, Lancet, 358, pp. 999-1005.
The irst example below places more emphasis on the writer, the second on the idea.
Citing example:
Rajaratnam (2001, p. 1005) concludes that, ‘The cost to the nation’s health of working out of phase with our biological clocks is probably incalculable at present.’
‘The cost to the nation’s health of working out of phase with our biological clocks is
probably incalculable at present’ (Rajaratnam 2001, p. 1005).
Paraphrase
You may paraphrase an author’s words or ideas - restating them in your own words,
but without altering their meaning or providing your own interpretation of
Author’s original text
Biological time is not only scientiically important, but it also greatly affects the productivity and health of a nation. The cost to the nation’s health of working out of phase
with our biological clocks is probably incalculable at present. In the short term, poor
sleep, gastrointestinal problems, higher accident rate, and social problems are evident.
Rajaratnam, S 2001, ‘Health in a 24-hr society’, Lancet, 358, pp. 999-1005.
Citing example:
Rajaratnam (2001, p. 1005) argues that, while the notion of biological time is
of scientiic importance, it is also economically and socially signiicant at a national level. He points to the health, productivity and social problems which
may be attributed to individuals working ‘out of phase’ with their internal clocks.
Summary
You may summarize - use your own words to present the key points of an author’s
argument or ideas, without altering the meaning.
Author’s original text
Biological time is not only scientiically important, but it also greatly affects the productivity and health of a nation. The cost to the nation’s health of working out of phase
with our biological clocks is probably incalculable at present. In the short term, poor
sleep, gastrointestinal problems, higher accident rate, and social problems are evident.
Rajaratnam, S 2001, ‘Health in a 24-hr society’, Lancet, 358, pp. 999-1005.
Citing example:
In his conclusion, Rajaratnam (2001, p. 1005) points to the possible economic and
social costs incurred by a nation, when individuals work ‘out of phase’ with their bio-
Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Volume 16. No. 2 Agustus 2011 151
logical clocks.
Citing page numbers in-text
• Page numbers are essential if you are directly quoting someone else’s words.
Insert page numbers after the year, separated by a comma. When paraphrasing
or summarising, page numbers may be also be included.
• If a work being referred to is long, page numbers might be useful to the reader.
In this case, include them in the in-text citation, separated from the year by a
comma.
• Use the abbreviations p. for single page, and pp. for a page range, e.g. pp. 11-12
Reference list
The reference list, normally headed ‘References’, should appear at the end of your
work, and should include details of all the sources of information which you have referred to, or cited, in your text.
Order of items in the list
The items in the reference list are arranged alphabetically by the authors’ surname.
Where you have cited more than one work by the same author, those items are then
arranged by date, starting with the earliest.
Format of citations in the reference list
The details which need to be included in each citation in the list depend on the type of
item referred to, e.g. book, journal article, or website.
The details, or elements, which are included in most citations, should be presented in
this order: author - date- title of work - title of larger work (if any) - publishing details
Punctuation and spacing in the citation
Some general rules apply:
• Authors’ names:
o Use only the initials of the authors’given names.
o Use full stops and spaces between initials.
• Titles of works:
o Use minimal capitalization for the titles of books, book chapters and
journal articles.
o In the titles of journals, magazines and newspapers, capital letters
should be used as they appear normally
o Use italics for the titles of books, journals, and newspapers.
o Enclose titles of book chapters and journal articles in single quotation
marks
• Page numbering:
o Books; page numbers are not usually needed in the reference list. If
152 Bahar, Optimasi Biaya Sistem ...
they are, include them as the inal item of the citation, separated from
the preceding one by a comma, and followed by a full stop.
o Journal articles: page numbers appear as the inal item of the citation,
separated from the preceding one by a comma, and followed by a full
stop.
o Use the abbreviations p. for a single page, and pp. for a page range, eg
pp. 11-12
• Whole citation:
o The different details, or elements, of each citation are separated by
commas.
o The whole citation inishes with a full stop.
Works by the same irst authors, published in the same year
Single author entries come irst in the reference list
Example:
Bessant, J 2001, ‘The question of public trust and the schooling system’, Australian
Journal of Education, vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 207-226.
Bessant, J & Webber, R 2001, ‘Policy and the youth sector: youth peaks and why we
need them’, Youth Studies Australia, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 43-47.
Robbins, SP 2004, Organizational behaviour, 11th edn, Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper
Saddle River, NJ.
Robbins, SP & DeCenzo, DA 2004, Fundamentals of management: essential concepts
and applications, 4th edn, Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
Works by the same author, published in the same year.
In your reference list, order these works alphabetically according to the title of the
work and use the letters a, b, c ... after the publication date to distinguish between them
in your citations.
Reference list:
Example:
Blainey, G 2003a, Black kettle and full moon: daily life in a vanished Australia, Penguin/Viking, Camberwell, Victoria.
Blainey, G 2003b, The rush that never ended: a history of Australian mining, 5th edn,
Melbourne University Press, Carlton, Vic..
Scutt, JA 2003a, ‘Future access - discrimination and the Disability Discrimination
Act’, Access, vol. 5, no.3, pp. 6-10.
Scutt, JA 2003b, ‘Without precedent: sex/gender discrimination in the High Court’,
Alternative Law Journal, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 74-77.
Citing example:
Scutt (2003b p. 74) looks at the issues arising from the lack of High Court precedents
in sex/gender discrimination law.